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Random Thoughts: Weighing the Crosscurrents


The goal, when trading, is to line up the greatest number of ducks.


Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial). It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Ten Themes for 2009 and The First Test of 2009.

  • Yuan is love? Baby don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more...

  • After punting my energy exposure on Monday--and keeping corks near my forks yesterday--"discipline over conviction" has once again been rewarded (funny how that happens).

  • I've yet to re-dip my wick into this 8% slip but given my sense on the geopolitical front--and with a respectful, conscious nod to deflation--this is an area of great interest to me.

  • Professor Fleck offers valuable food for thought in his 2009 outlook, including some technology names on the long side. I've known--and read--Bill for years and always like to know what he's vibing.

  • The Sleep-O-Meter Index. Nonsensical? Yes. Early? Often. Prescient? Eerily so.

  • Snaps to LP and Minyanland on vaulting past 300,000 registrations. No matter how bad it gets, there should always be a place for children to learn how to earn, spend, save and give

  • Why does Doctor Evil keep popping up in my crowded keppe?

  • The "news is worst near a bottom" lens would be easier to digest sans the 27% rally in the S&P since November.

  • Hoofy will (correctly) offer that some "back and fill" is healthy (until it's not) while I, for and with my money, carefully read our tea leaves for daily direction.

  • What are they saying today? Let's see:

    • Intel (INTC) down a finski. Not horrid but far from dry. Advantage: Boo.

    • Banks listening to chin music of three percent plus. Advantage: Boo.

    • Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT) green. Advantage: Hoofy.

    • Breadth Lox and Onions. Advantage: Boo.

    • Dollar off a percent. Possible Advantage: Hoofy.

    • Commodities getting smoked despite the dollar. Advantage: Boo.

  • Note Halliburton (HAL) as it flips the upside switch, the first name in the energy patch to do so. Upon pulling up the chart, the technicals (always a better context than catalyst) support an upside try with a stop below $20. Not advice, naturally, but I tried some for schnitz and giggles with defined risk and an open mind.

  • On a housekeeping note, I've gotta major meld at 1:30 that should last an hour or two. Balance has never been my strong suit but it's a process I must conquer as we continue to build the 'Ville. On that note, and while I've got ya, I've got Yahoo TV manana and my morning missive may be a bit delayed. Please know that we're jamming as hard as humanly possible to deliver a Minyanville experience you've grown accustomed to. Donke, in advance, and best, as always.


Position in HAL

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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