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Random Thoughts: Weighing the Crosscurrents

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The goal, when trading, is to line up the greatest number of ducks.

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Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial). It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Ten Themes for 2009 and The First Test of 2009.

  • Yuan is love? Baby don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more...

  • After punting my energy exposure on Monday--and keeping corks near my forks yesterday--"discipline over conviction" has once again been rewarded (funny how that happens).

  • I've yet to re-dip my wick into this 8% slip but given my sense on the geopolitical front--and with a respectful, conscious nod to deflation--this is an area of great interest to me.

  • Professor Fleck offers valuable food for thought in his 2009 outlook, including some technology names on the long side. I've known--and read--Bill for years and always like to know what he's vibing.

  • The Sleep-O-Meter Index. Nonsensical? Yes. Early? Often. Prescient? Eerily so.

  • Snaps to LP and Minyanland on vaulting past 300,000 registrations. No matter how bad it gets, there should always be a place for children to learn how to earn, spend, save and give

  • Why does Doctor Evil keep popping up in my crowded keppe?

  • The "news is worst near a bottom" lens would be easier to digest sans the 27% rally in the S&P since November.

  • Hoofy will (correctly) offer that some "back and fill" is healthy (until it's not) while I, for and with my money, carefully read our tea leaves for daily direction.

  • What are they saying today? Let's see:

    • Intel (INTC) down a finski. Not horrid but far from dry. Advantage: Boo.

    • Banks listening to chin music of three percent plus. Advantage: Boo.

    • Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT) green. Advantage: Hoofy.

    • Breadth Lox and Onions. Advantage: Boo.

    • Dollar off a percent. Possible Advantage: Hoofy.

    • Commodities getting smoked despite the dollar. Advantage: Boo.

  • Note Halliburton (HAL) as it flips the upside switch, the first name in the energy patch to do so. Upon pulling up the chart, the technicals (always a better context than catalyst) support an upside try with a stop below $20. Not advice, naturally, but I tried some for schnitz and giggles with defined risk and an open mind.

  • On a housekeeping note, I've gotta major meld at 1:30 that should last an hour or two. Balance has never been my strong suit but it's a process I must conquer as we continue to build the 'Ville. On that note, and while I've got ya, I've got Yahoo TV manana and my morning missive may be a bit delayed. Please know that we're jamming as hard as humanly possible to deliver a Minyanville experience you've grown accustomed to. Donke, in advance, and best, as always.


R.P.

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