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Randoms: The Path of Maximum Frustration


Bullish sentiment paves the way for a bear scare.

  • While I was a last second Sally on my S&P put addition into yesterday's bell, I booked that trade into the morning's meltage given I'm trading with a scalpel not a sword.

  • I continue to believe we'll soon ski down the other side of the "W' but discipline trumps conviction in environments like this.

  • The headline that jumped out and bit me when I strapped into my turret this morning? Investors turn bullish on U.S. stocks for the first time since 2007.

  • Does that psychology need to shift for us to traverse the Widow Peak?

  • Yep, and it can take many forms. For instance, the NY Times ran a front page story today highlighting the insolvency date for social security and medicare is closer than previously anticipated. Not a shocker to Minyans, I know, but perhaps a wake up call for the mainstream?

  • Seeing both sides (always), the drugs act well, as do consumer non-durables and select semis (Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), Advanced Micro (AMD)) on the heels of the overnight news). The Matador Crowd will (correctly) note that stocks (sectors) that don't go down in a hard flush have underlying demand.

  • Salmon vs. the Stream? I'm keeping a very tight risk leash on any "buy to sell" exposure vs. (the entirely more consistent) "short to cover" approach I recently shifted towards. Those trades are discussed in real-time on the Buzz & Banter.

  • This face for radio will be on Nightly Business Report's "Street Critique" tonight on PBS.

  • Keep S&P 875 on ye radar as the level of lore for bovine so sore. Technical Analysis 101 dictates that the time to buy a breakout is on the retest of the acne and that is surely being whispered about amongst the Matador Crowd.

  • Minyans helping Minyans! If there's a NYC area senior technology analyst looking to hang their hat with one of the industry's best and brightest, gimme a ping and I'll do what I can.

  • Is DJ Jazzy Jeff a modern day urban Art Garfunkel?

  • I finally got in touch with my inner-Bauerism last night on DVR. Gotta love Jack, man-we need more people like him, folks that care and are willing the get their fingernails dirty making the world a better place. True story.

A Little Minyan Mailbag Action:


We own a private pawn shop company (about 50 stores) and loan demand in April was massive-the first 12 days of May has been like nothing we've seen. The stress in the system for lower income folks has not abated. In fact, it looks to have increased. The recent rally was "bank and government led" and has not made its way down the food chain. It's way too early to celebrate, as many in Minyanville have offered. Just a data point from the front lines. Thanks for all you do.

Minyan Name Withheld.

Another Mailbag:


I noticed the Pawn Shop Buzz and wanted to throw something similar at you. I work for a construction firm leveraged to the private commercial segment of the market. We have witnessed a massive evaporation in work over the last 6+ months. Without getting into too much proprietary information, we have for all intents and purposes hit a wall. There is little to no work in the private sector and we're bidding public jobs that we normally wouldn't consider. In my two decades in this industry I have never experienced anything like it.

I was chatting with my boss this AM and he stated that he had to laugh when he and his wife were watching the news yesterday and there was commentary of the recession being over or near over. Just a flavor for what is happening here in the real economy,

Minyan NW

Good luck, Minyans, and let's be careful out there.


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Positions in S&P, financials
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