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Testing the Waters of Intel


Plucking at the strings of lunacy, trying to find something valid enough to trade off, thus becomes a somewhat futile exercise...

Greetings from Unpleasantville (population: Me) where I've taken a brief break from both the Bernanke testimony and my hideous to-do list in order to take a starter-sized position in Intel (INTC), just under $25 per share. Do I feel "great" about the purchase? Well, the price action is punk, the tape looks grimish, the margins weren't fabulous and it just may be getting propped up at the $25 strike price on its way towards better support a buck or so lower. Also, it violates a personal rule to never trade angry.

On the plus-side, the stock is acting much the way I thought it might when we discussed it yesterday, the consumer is punkish but cap-ex remains groovy, "you gotta buy when it feels bad" and annoyed (if not angry) is the only mood I have, at the moment.

  • Toyota Motors (TM) has been forced to halt production due to quake damage at a major supplier. Also, this is the single worst on-line ad I've ever seen (despite its appeal as a vicarious anger-venting exercise).

  • The rumors of a Macy's (M) buyout do a nice job of illustrating where we are in the M&A cycle. I can't think of any way on earth buying Macy's at $52 would make any sense to either the buyers or the sellers. It flies in the face of financial logic, the history of retail (littered with the bodies of dead retail LBO's past) and ignores everything Macy's has spent the last five years accomplishing. But I still wouldn't short the stock... the PE guys have to do something with the money, right?

  • On the other hand, Eddie Lampert in Safeway (SWY) sounds great to me (NB: there's a 99% chance that view is colored by my having a position in Safeway and none in Macy's).

  • It's only Wednesday? Time for meditative chanting ("I ain't no Hollaback Girl... I ain't no Hollaback girl...")

  • I thought Minyan Bill Fleckenstein did a great, and restrained, job railing against the financial media machine on last night's Fast Money.

  • My personal problem with railing against the particulars of the CPI, PPI etc., is that I regard pretty much all of the data as suspect, both in the content and the way it's compiled. Plucking at the strings of lunacy, trying to find something valid enough for me to trade off, thus becomes a somewhat futile exercise, from where I'm sitting.
With that I'm off to the NASDAQ market-site to make some television. Stay safe, dry and off the highways, Minyans.
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Positions in INTC, SWY

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