More Money, No Problems
By
Scott Reeves
Jun 27, 2008 11:15 am
If it's that simple, why not cut taxes permanently?
Consumers are spending their tax rebates, cash registers are ringing and all is (temporarily) right with the world.
Consumer spending increased 0.8% in May, the biggest increase since November, the U.S. Commerce Department reported Friday.
Incomes grew 1.9%, the largest increase since September 2005, and inflation was lower than expected.
This suggests that tax rebates goosed the economy as hoped. The downside: It’s almost certainly only a temporary yelp as rising fuel prices take an ever-larger bite out of household budgets.
Here’s a thought: Why not make President Bush’s tax cuts permanent, so folks have more money in their pockets to spend and -- who knows -- even to save and invest?
If a little extra spending money is a good thing, why not a lot every year? After all, whose money is it?
Don’t hold your breath. The pols in Washington are again trying to buy our votes with our money - and betting that we’ll thank them for the privilege.
Never mind that the sainted John F. Kennedy cut taxes and the economy boomed. If you’re a politician looking to expand your majorities in Congress and recapture the White House in November, even discussing a permanent tax cut would be a tacit admission that… ugh, it’s too horrible to even contemplate. And that other guy, the former Navy pilot, freely admits that he’s an economic illiterate.
Addressing the Economic Club of New York in December 1962, Kennedy said:
"The final and best means of strengthening demand among consumers and business is to reduce the burden on private income and the deterrents to private initiative which are imposed by our present tax system – and this administration pledged itself last summer to an across-the-board, top-to-bottom cut in personal and corporate income taxes."
Kennedy, a Democrat, sounds like an ardent supply-sider and tax-cutter. He continued:
"I'm not talking about a ‘quickie’ or a temporary tax cut, which would be more appropriate if a recession were imminent. Nor am I talking about giving the economy a mere shot in the arm, to ease some temporary complaint. I am talking about the accumulated evidence of the last five years that our present tax system…exerts too heavy a drag on growth in peace time; that it siphons out of the private economy too large a share of personal and business purchasing power; that it reduces the financial incentives for personal effort, investment, and risk-taking. In short, to increase demand and lift the economy, the federal government's most useful role is… to expand the incentives and opportunities for private expenditures."
Imagine that.
Kennedy got his tax cuts, and the economy grew for 106 months in the 1960s, the largest expansion until the 120-month boom in the 1990s sparked by -- you guessed it -- another round of tax cuts. Tax revenue increased by about 65% from 1965 to 1970 and approximately doubled following President Reagan’s tax cuts.
Unlike today’s politicians, Kennedy didn’t play class warfare:
“For all these reasons, next year's tax bill should reduce personal as well as corporate income taxes: for those in the lower brackets, who are certain to spend their additional take-home pay, and for those in the middle and upper brackets, who can thereby be encouraged to undertake additional efforts and enabled to invest more capital.”
This time, consumers are using their tax rebates to buy electronics, furniture and clothes. That’s good news for Sony (SNE), Philips Electronics (PHG), Ann Taylor (ANN), Macy’s (M), Target (TGT) and Wal-Mart (WMT), but no one expects the increase in consumer spending to last.
A permanent tax cut would spark long-term investment and bedrock companies such as Intel (INTC), Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Microsoft (MSFT) and IBM (IBM). The entire economy would benefit.
Clearly, it isn’t politically correct to say that Presidents Kennedy and Reagan were right about tax cuts - let alone that Yalie who speaks English like a second language and calls Crawford, Texas home.
But as today’s politicians blather about “investment” (i.e. new and higher taxes), wouldn’t it be smart to ask if they remember what their predecessors, both Democrat and Republican, did to spark solid, long-term economic growth?
Consumer spending increased 0.8% in May, the biggest increase since November, the U.S. Commerce Department reported Friday.
Incomes grew 1.9%, the largest increase since September 2005, and inflation was lower than expected.
This suggests that tax rebates goosed the economy as hoped. The downside: It’s almost certainly only a temporary yelp as rising fuel prices take an ever-larger bite out of household budgets.
Here’s a thought: Why not make President Bush’s tax cuts permanent, so folks have more money in their pockets to spend and -- who knows -- even to save and invest?
If a little extra spending money is a good thing, why not a lot every year? After all, whose money is it?
Don’t hold your breath. The pols in Washington are again trying to buy our votes with our money - and betting that we’ll thank them for the privilege.
Never mind that the sainted John F. Kennedy cut taxes and the economy boomed. If you’re a politician looking to expand your majorities in Congress and recapture the White House in November, even discussing a permanent tax cut would be a tacit admission that… ugh, it’s too horrible to even contemplate. And that other guy, the former Navy pilot, freely admits that he’s an economic illiterate.
Addressing the Economic Club of New York in December 1962, Kennedy said:
"The final and best means of strengthening demand among consumers and business is to reduce the burden on private income and the deterrents to private initiative which are imposed by our present tax system – and this administration pledged itself last summer to an across-the-board, top-to-bottom cut in personal and corporate income taxes."
Kennedy, a Democrat, sounds like an ardent supply-sider and tax-cutter. He continued:
"I'm not talking about a ‘quickie’ or a temporary tax cut, which would be more appropriate if a recession were imminent. Nor am I talking about giving the economy a mere shot in the arm, to ease some temporary complaint. I am talking about the accumulated evidence of the last five years that our present tax system…exerts too heavy a drag on growth in peace time; that it siphons out of the private economy too large a share of personal and business purchasing power; that it reduces the financial incentives for personal effort, investment, and risk-taking. In short, to increase demand and lift the economy, the federal government's most useful role is… to expand the incentives and opportunities for private expenditures."
Imagine that.
Kennedy got his tax cuts, and the economy grew for 106 months in the 1960s, the largest expansion until the 120-month boom in the 1990s sparked by -- you guessed it -- another round of tax cuts. Tax revenue increased by about 65% from 1965 to 1970 and approximately doubled following President Reagan’s tax cuts.
Unlike today’s politicians, Kennedy didn’t play class warfare:
“For all these reasons, next year's tax bill should reduce personal as well as corporate income taxes: for those in the lower brackets, who are certain to spend their additional take-home pay, and for those in the middle and upper brackets, who can thereby be encouraged to undertake additional efforts and enabled to invest more capital.”
This time, consumers are using their tax rebates to buy electronics, furniture and clothes. That’s good news for Sony (SNE), Philips Electronics (PHG), Ann Taylor (ANN), Macy’s (M), Target (TGT) and Wal-Mart (WMT), but no one expects the increase in consumer spending to last.
A permanent tax cut would spark long-term investment and bedrock companies such as Intel (INTC), Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Microsoft (MSFT) and IBM (IBM). The entire economy would benefit.
Clearly, it isn’t politically correct to say that Presidents Kennedy and Reagan were right about tax cuts - let alone that Yalie who speaks English like a second language and calls Crawford, Texas home.
But as today’s politicians blather about “investment” (i.e. new and higher taxes), wouldn’t it be smart to ask if they remember what their predecessors, both Democrat and Republican, did to spark solid, long-term economic growth?
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
(9)
Reply
2008-06-27 11:28:07
As long as...
The conversation is framed around the income tax(personal and corporate), the economy will feel a drag. Until a consumption tax is used as the major source of federal government revenue, our economy will drag along an anchor that have pulled for for almost 100 years. Curious? www.fairtax.org
2008-06-27 11:43:50
Tax Cuts=Debt=Inflation (unless you know what you are doing). Oil=Tax
I agree there is an optimal tax rate.
But not enough taxes, and we get debt. Debt is fine
if it can be serviced by growth. Growth requires proper
investment of capital.
But we have recently not had proper investment of capital.
So now the government has turned to the best way it knows
how to service debt: Inflation.
But inflation can easily "run away", and hurt everyone including
investors.
Basic Economics101.
Plus, you can't get something for nothing.
By the way, I believe oil is acting like a huge tax increase right now.
I hope the prices fall soon.
Oil price increases=Opposite of your story.
But not enough taxes, and we get debt. Debt is fine
if it can be serviced by growth. Growth requires proper
investment of capital.
But we have recently not had proper investment of capital.
So now the government has turned to the best way it knows
how to service debt: Inflation.
But inflation can easily "run away", and hurt everyone including
investors.
Basic Economics101.
Plus, you can't get something for nothing.
By the way, I believe oil is acting like a huge tax increase right now.
I hope the prices fall soon.
Oil price increases=Opposite of your story.
2008-06-27 11:51:33
Tax Cuts=Debt=Inflation (unless you know what you are doing). Oil=Tax
Oil is like a tax, because the money mostly goes to foreign governments and oil companies. Thus is has a very small economic multiplier for our economy. This is similar to tax money that is collected by the government, as it has a low multiplier (the government is inefficient at making use of resources).
Oil also spurs on inflation across the board (everything is made with, or consists of, or is transported mostly by oil).
These are just a few reasons why high oil prices are very bad for the economy.
Oil also spurs on inflation across the board (everything is made with, or consists of, or is transported mostly by oil).
These are just a few reasons why high oil prices are very bad for the economy.
2008-06-27 12:03:53
Watch out!
"Here's a thought: why not make President Bush's tax cuts permanent, so folks have more money in their pockets to spend and -- who knows -- even to save and invest?"
Oh man, you're in big trouble now. Taking money away from the govt? Letting people keep more of their paychecks? Incentivizing success?
You're going to get scorched for such blasphemy.
Oh man, you're in big trouble now. Taking money away from the govt? Letting people keep more of their paychecks? Incentivizing success?
You're going to get scorched for such blasphemy.
2008-06-27 12:21:33
Tax Cuts=Debt=Inflation (unless you know what you are doing). Oil=Tax
Therefore, I think government should handle the big issues, like defense, building roads, and a national energy policy?
I would like to see overall govermnet spending decreased in most other areas. Then we could get that nice tax cut.
But right now we need to dig (this means grow) our way out of the mess. I'm also trying to figure out what to do about the inflation!
"Inflation in things we need to feed, educate and power the world and deflation in home prices and, some would argue, relative wages." -Todd
This is a nice way of saying we will all get poorer, unless we invest properly.
I would like to see overall govermnet spending decreased in most other areas. Then we could get that nice tax cut.
But right now we need to dig (this means grow) our way out of the mess. I'm also trying to figure out what to do about the inflation!
"Inflation in things we need to feed, educate and power the world and deflation in home prices and, some would argue, relative wages." -Todd
This is a nice way of saying we will all get poorer, unless we invest properly.
2008-06-27 13:09:13
The Optimum tax rate?
Where is the optimum tax rate?
If taxes are too high, then the government is collecting too much money from the private sector. Since the government is inefficient at allocating resources (and the private sector more efficient), the overall growth of the economy is sub-optimal. This I argue is what happens with Communism (Cuba, China, etc. are great examples).
If taxes are too low, the government must go into debt. A certain level of debt is serviceable if the overall economy grows , as the private sector will allocate the resources more efficiently. But taken too the extreme, the government debt balloons, and the interest on the debt, takes away from essential money that the government needs to run it's programs. So it get itself into a debt spiral. And since taxes are unpopular, and cutting spending for it is almost impossible, it chooses to inflate away the debt. And inflation is bad for all.
Now we are all being subjected to a sudden oil tax. Growth will slow, unless the fever breaks soon.
If taxes are too high, then the government is collecting too much money from the private sector. Since the government is inefficient at allocating resources (and the private sector more efficient), the overall growth of the economy is sub-optimal. This I argue is what happens with Communism (Cuba, China, etc. are great examples).
If taxes are too low, the government must go into debt. A certain level of debt is serviceable if the overall economy grows , as the private sector will allocate the resources more efficiently. But taken too the extreme, the government debt balloons, and the interest on the debt, takes away from essential money that the government needs to run it's programs. So it get itself into a debt spiral. And since taxes are unpopular, and cutting spending for it is almost impossible, it chooses to inflate away the debt. And inflation is bad for all.
Now we are all being subjected to a sudden oil tax. Growth will slow, unless the fever breaks soon.
2008-06-28 10:55:04
Kennedy Boom Years...
.... Oh, come on, Pres. Kennedy authorized 1 million troops for Vietnam, up from Eisenhower's 200 military 'advisors' there... about 1/3 million troops there by the time he was assassinated... A big war always generates a big, boom economy as the government is forced to quickly spend like a drunken sailor for war needs at any high price... and war industries and their downlines swim in (borrowed gov't) money... An exploding national debt is the price we all pay for that... especially if tax cuts accompany the war... just like now with a small perpetual war... it's a hollow, deceptive illusion of a booming economy... with much physical and financial death, pain, suffering... and spending for today's small war is mostly going overseas... to companies registered overseas for tax purposes... not helping the U.S. economy...
.... Kennedy tax cuts were NOT the 'magic'...
.... Kennedy tax cuts were NOT the 'magic'...
2008-06-28 18:55:39
Cut taxes to zero
If tax cuts add revenue, cutting taxes to zero should REALLY increase tax revenues!
Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options. Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved

















