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Emotion Remains The Enemy


A market this passionate is a dangerous market, long or short.

Holy Cow is the email anger flowing today. The bulls are mad at me because I said it would be hard for Target (TGT) to post strong earnings after the company missed Same Store Sales two out of three months in the quarter just ended. The bears are mad at me because I didn't shout down Barton Biggs last night on Fast Money when he made a "year end stampede" call (choosing, instead, to take issue with the idea that the banks in general or Citigroup (C) in particular should be bought with the Fed done cutting). In my experience a market this passionate is a dangerous market, long or short. Here's what I'm thinking, as calmly as possible:

  • Want an example of why it's hard to make (or keep) money in "bubble stocks"? How about Crox (CROX)? The stock was off 30% today as of 11:30 this morning, bringing it to levels we haven't seen since... (drumroll here): about 2 months ago. Crox has been a short favorite all year but, unless it had near-perfect timing, Boo's crew is still in the hole on the name. Just because the Pigs are getting slaughtered doesn't mean anyone has really "won".

  • Despite the early stock plunge it seems worth noting that it's pretty dry in Boring, Big Cap Tech. Intel (INTC), I'm looking at you, sweetie.

  • You can fire all the bank executives in the world but you can't make them take their subprime exposure with them when they leave. In a similar thought vein, just dumping Gary Forsee didn't do much to fix Sprint (S). "Fresh blood" is only as good as the ideas it carries with it.

  • Microsoft (MSFT) is slightly higher. Trading well in a weak tape is a pretty bullish "tell".
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Position in INTC.

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