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Random Thoughts: Bernanke Still Not Owning Up To Recession


Does Ben have to do admit a recession before we can put in a real bottom?

  • Interesting take by a pundit on Fox Business earlier today, that in six to nine months some of these brokerage "write downs" could be reversed as a function of mark-to-market. I pride myself on seeing all sides and as I haven't even considered this, I wanted to put it out there.

  • Keep an eye on the energy patch, Minyans, as the heretofore jig has started to swig. This remains a deflation proxy, in my eyes, and yes, I understand that most won't agree with that.Just the way I like it...

  • It's hard to put lipstick on a pig. It gets messy and, well, far from kosher. Ambac (ABK) (-60%) is not good for the financials (think counter-party risk with mas derivatives) and while many of these names are off 50% (and subject to bounce), some would offer that this is a fresh shoe.

  • Wow, Greg Reyes, the former CEO of Brocade (BRCD), is gonna spend 21 months in the clink for backdating options. I remember when he was lauded as the best in tech CEO breed back in the day. I guess you never know...

  • OK, so now we know that stimuli, in principal, could help, the Fed is at the ready, growth has slowed, risks are elevated and housing is a drag? Really? Get out! Seriously, stop pulling my leg! Come on, it tickles!

  • If there was a nook nestled in there, it was the vibe that any stimulus package should be explicitly temporary. This, I agree with, although it's likely not what the market wants to hear.

  • It feels like it was only three days-and 25% ago-that Monsanto (MON) was considered a safety play.

  • What's the difference between disinflation and deflation? Degree, I suppose, but semantics by and large.

  • Minyan Ryan writes "With the Fed and brokers coming clean, it seems we are in the migration phase right now. With the VIX at 24 and down on the day, the panic phase is hasn't arrived yet. Lotsa bottom talk on CNBC too."

  • Remember S&P 1380? SEE S&P 1380.

  • Ben is still not owning up to the recession. Does he have to do that before we can put in a real bottom? And, I'm no economist, but isn't the market (twofer ones in Citi (C), Merrill (MER) and the like) telling us the exact opposite?

  • Is it me or did Big Ben seem like he's on the verge of tears?

  • Can you blame him?

  • Do you see Fortress (FIG) losing teenage status?

  • Does it mean anything that the homies are holding their bid?

  • Along those lines, are the semis (ex-Intel (INTC), which will pin $20), storage, software and high beta rip to the upside if this tape can hold it together?

  • In other words, N's over S's again?

  • At least to NDX 1990ish?

  • How would you like to be negative gamma (shorter higher, longer lower) right now?

  • Do you see the disparity between index vols (very low) and individual stock vol (particularly the financials), which is very high?


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