Answers I Really Wanna Know: Jumping the Shark in Our Wishbone World?
By Todd Harrison Oct 14, 2008 8:20 am
Which path will be taken towards a recovery?
- Was Friday the 2008 trading low before a harsher downside comeuppance arrives in 2009?
- Given the historic rally that occurred while the bond market was closed yesterday, how will the equity thermometer react with the credit backbone open?
- Particularly with Credit Default Swaps in the financials lower across the board this morning?
- Is the “easy” trade the first fade (lower) today before a truer tone emerges?
- Has the script been written into expiration?
- While I punted my bull costume into the eye-popping lift, have I adequately expressed that I’m open-minded to the upside and trading “two-sided” as a function of time and price?
- If you're not already on it, shouldn't you take a free trial to the Minyanville Buzz & Banter to get our trading commentary in real-time?
- Given the S&P rallied 20% from Friday’s low to yesterday’s close, how does a disciplined trader not take a step back to breathe?
- Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), State Street Bank (STT), Bank of New York Mellon (BK) and Merrill Lynch (MER) are the “chosen nine”?
- The preferred stakes will be non-dilutive?
- Riddle me this—what bank will now be able to issue a secondary offering?
- Would YOU want to be underneath the government in the new world capital structure?
- Are you being careful to not assume that this is an absolute positive for existing shareholders?
-
I thought Bank America and Mother Merrill were one and the same?
- Have we officially jumped the shark in Our Wishbone World?
- Does the path of maximum frustration dictate that the savers—the prudent folks who preserved capital or raised cash—suffer as a result of dollar devaluation?
- Not to mention all the big money funds that cashed out, setting the stage for performance anxiety into year-end?
- Directional bias aside, does anyone believe that this insane volatility is particularly healthy?
- Hey, why the long face?
- Are you trying to catch every trade or are you content to risk capital on situations with an advantageous set-up?
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
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2008-10-14 08:47:33
Turnip trucks on Wall Street?
I was lamenting on my situation as it stands today and decided to express myself a bit to you minions. Last month my home value took an even larger dive. I got my Fidelity statement and all my accounts have been hammered. My bank statements show that my savings accounts is earning less then 1% down from the 5.5% we were making last year. While my home value has been hammered my Real Estate Tax appraisal is up 30% along with my tax. The dollar has been devalued 35%. Food is up about 35% this year and energy is going through the roof. My job is on the line as it is about to go over seas. My health insurance premium took a jump of about 25% and I got a new list of exclusions that dilute most of what I was insured for. I'm lucky in the sense that my auto insurance agent has done her best to keep my premiums low ( she is a nice lady) but god help me if I have to buy a new car if my old one breaks down. Have you noticed what they want for cheap crapola import these days? I would buy a domestic but I can't find one that gets decent mileage.
I'm so torqued that all my tax dollars will go to bail out the banks and financial institutions whose CEO's have packed all the assets out the back door in the name of job well done with their golden parachutes, excessive bonus plans and wages that would make God proud. If it was a job well done then why in the hell our we in the shape were in?
I went down to the liquor store to buy a jug of VO to soften my lamenting and saw that it was on sale. Since I felt it was going to be a two fifther night I bought 3 fifths so I would have one extra for what I knew would be a hair of the dog type morning. Did I mention that the liquor store was really busy? I wonder how many of these folks were trying to drown out the thought of another four months of our piss ant President before we can look forward to some change. Some days a person needs to do a total defrag and two fifths can settle down my lamenting on where we are and how we got here. If it weren't for VO being on sale I think I would be totally pissed!
Is Sarah Palin still accusing Mr. Obama of being a terrorist by association? Does she think that he became a Presidential candidate by associating with Terrorist! Geeze! What does that say about her mentality?
One thing I like about Mr. Obama is that I truly believe he will be a true representative for the people and for what is good for our country. The trickle down effect hasn't worked for 8 years unless you count yesterday huge market swing upwards. However I missed that turn on a dime swing. I'm sure the big dogs caught it but most of us minions have to work for a living.
I sure do appreciate minyanville. It gives me some satisfaction to be able to point out the turnips when they fall off the truck.
You all have a nice day.
JPM
I'm so torqued that all my tax dollars will go to bail out the banks and financial institutions whose CEO's have packed all the assets out the back door in the name of job well done with their golden parachutes, excessive bonus plans and wages that would make God proud. If it was a job well done then why in the hell our we in the shape were in?
I went down to the liquor store to buy a jug of VO to soften my lamenting and saw that it was on sale. Since I felt it was going to be a two fifther night I bought 3 fifths so I would have one extra for what I knew would be a hair of the dog type morning. Did I mention that the liquor store was really busy? I wonder how many of these folks were trying to drown out the thought of another four months of our piss ant President before we can look forward to some change. Some days a person needs to do a total defrag and two fifths can settle down my lamenting on where we are and how we got here. If it weren't for VO being on sale I think I would be totally pissed!
Is Sarah Palin still accusing Mr. Obama of being a terrorist by association? Does she think that he became a Presidential candidate by associating with Terrorist! Geeze! What does that say about her mentality?
One thing I like about Mr. Obama is that I truly believe he will be a true representative for the people and for what is good for our country. The trickle down effect hasn't worked for 8 years unless you count yesterday huge market swing upwards. However I missed that turn on a dime swing. I'm sure the big dogs caught it but most of us minions have to work for a living.
I sure do appreciate minyanville. It gives me some satisfaction to be able to point out the turnips when they fall off the truck.
You all have a nice day.
JPM
2008-10-14 09:29:12
LIBOR hasn't moved per Bloomberg
Therefore, we are still in a world of hurt. When I see 3-month LIBOR under 3% I'll believe all these packages are working.
2008-10-14 09:54:45
Confusion seeking carification
This morning I opened my mailbox and there was a "sample ballot" in there.
I kept looking at it and I was reading "sample bailout".
I had to shake my head and finish my coffee before I could see that "sample ballot" really was written on the envelope.
Is it me or is there a connection?
And has the ultimate "put" been anointed?
The "greenspananky-Paulson-IMF" Put?
And what's to keep them from doing it again now that all the governments have blessed the same people that got us here in the first place?
Minyan Terry
I kept looking at it and I was reading "sample bailout".
I had to shake my head and finish my coffee before I could see that "sample ballot" really was written on the envelope.
Is it me or is there a connection?
And has the ultimate "put" been anointed?
The "greenspananky-Paulson-IMF" Put?
And what's to keep them from doing it again now that all the governments have blessed the same people that got us here in the first place?
Minyan Terry
2008-10-14 10:03:51
silver and gold
It seems physical metals have not declined in price as much as paper "metal"; 'hedge fund liquidation' is blamed as proximate cause. I also see, making it's way to my hometown paper, stories of a lack of availability in bullion coins and small bars. Now, I'm not a 'gold bug', but these facts are telling me precious metals are poised for a bull run, to at least their recent highs.
I would also note that, at around $849 an oz., gold is 16% off it's recent high - while silver is about 48% off. That suggests silver would be the better choice for a trade - but I'm unconvinced. I suppose it depends on WHY you'd be buying - for a 'storehouse' buy, I'd stick with gold.. maybe silver for the 'hit 'em to quit 'em' trade.
What I'd like to know is, does "long silver - short gold" make sense here?
I would also note that, at around $849 an oz., gold is 16% off it's recent high - while silver is about 48% off. That suggests silver would be the better choice for a trade - but I'm unconvinced. I suppose it depends on WHY you'd be buying - for a 'storehouse' buy, I'd stick with gold.. maybe silver for the 'hit 'em to quit 'em' trade.
What I'd like to know is, does "long silver - short gold" make sense here?
2008-10-14 14:26:07
Jump the shark? or like a volcano building pressure?
My best guess, and it is a guess, is that we don't start the inflation ride until the asset fire sale is completed. And for that to happen I again would guess that Global growth would have to pick up. But I do see the inflationary pressures building (like that volcano graphic you one posted for the market correction). It could be quite the sudden eruption if foreigners stop buying our deficits.
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