Random Thoughts: The First Test of 2009
Piggies slip 2% this morning.
Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial). It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Ten Themes for 2009.
- Treat this subject and slap it in the "for what it's worth" category but the Toddo Sleep-O-Meter Index is front and center after last night's inability to catch a wink. Old school Minyans know that this typically serves as a precursor for "something big" in the marketplace.
- Look at me, I'm A.D.D.! I completely spaced on including "salary deflation for professional athletes" on my annual Top Ten Themes column. I would add to that vibe the notion that several professional sports franchises will likely get Expo'd in the coming year(s).
- The reaction to news is more important than the news itself. Through that lens, keep Intel (INTC) on ye radar today as the ChipWhich of choice. We all know December fundies fell off a cliff--the question now is what matters more: The 40% fall since August or the 25% jump since November?
- When it comes to the current human condition, I've got more empathy than most. Still, the rancor and resentment out there is astounding (and yes, I'm talking to the MarketWatch message boards). I mean, seriously, how can we have possibly "rang the bell" louder than we have?
- Unfortunately, situations like this--and this--will become more commonplace. When I was talking "social mood" with Pep last night, he offered "The scary thing is that we're nowhere near the peak." The peak? My fear is that we're still on line for the gondola.
- Green beans in the Red Sea? Bristol-Meyers (BMY) and Abbott Labs (ABT) (remember, drugs got smoked yesterday), Mickey D's (MCD), FXY (the Japanese Yen) and the autos (Daimler (DAI), Toyota (TM), General Motors (GM)).
- "Financial staying power." Thank you, Minyan Peter, for bringing this to our attention as it speaks to what we've been saying in the 'Ville. There will be massive opportunities to prosper on the other side of this ride. The goal--our mission--is to be in a position to prosper when they arrive.
- As go the piggies, so goes the smoke. In that vein, keep half an eye (eww!) on the BKX flag pattern we spoke of yesterday. Today's deuce sliceage (2%) takes us to the bottom end of that band tag.
- With that, lemme get this out there. Good luck Minyans and remember, if you're not a part of the solution, you're part of the problem.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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