Buzz Bits: Dow Edges Down, Nasdaq Up
Your daily Buzz & Banter highlights.
Google "binary event" and you'll find a picture of tomorrow's opening! - Todd Harrison - 3:15 PM
- Steve Shobin called in from the train to offer one more thought. "Watch new issues," he said, "if and when they cannot hold their issue price, that's usually a tell-tale sign that supply is in control and sentiment has shifted."
- Don't kid yourself Minyans, tomorrow's open is binary. Google, for better or for worse, will color the overnight action in a big way. I'm hearing whispers that it's gonna miss margins but I must be the only one--the stock trades like a champ.
- Am I playing it? Nope. I haven't touched this stock in a long time which, clearly, was an opportunity cost. You know what they say about opportunities though...
- Crude $90. Do I hear par?
- I don't profess to know the timing of the cummupance (China, dollar, credit...) and while we gotta make hay while the sun shines, the certainty and bravado of the bulls mirrors confidence of bubbles past (dot.com, real estate). Not saying sentiment is as frothy, just offering that there are two sides to the trade. See 'em both regardless of how you're making bank.
- What's the launch tomorrow? I'm not allowed to say but I'll tease it more than Joisy hair. FOX Business. Animated critters. 5:00 PM Fridays. Weekly show. President Fish and Yours Truly making a formal introduction. It's gonna be a very Happy Hour so if you're an area Minyan, join us at the Bull & Bear (49th and Lexington) right after tomorrow's close.
- Fare ye well into the bell.
Shopping for Ebay - Sean Udall - 2:33 PM
I'm taking in a little eBay (EBAY) here...
I would like to buy it a couple of points lower but I think down $2.50 off good numbers with Google (GOOG) in front of us is a good risk/reward for a short term trade.
I thought the quarter was actually quite good and this is a typical sell the news reaction to a strong quarter. Additionally, EBAY should be applauded for getting the write-downs on Skype deal done and now move on with bigger issues.
Lastly, I think the Alibaba IPO which is a more direct benefit to Yahoo (YHOO) could also provide some positive spillover to EBAY as well, since Alibaba is the EBAY of China and I still think that deal will be explosive.
Positions in YHOO, EBAY.
Between the Ticks - Jeffrey Cooper - 12:35 PM
- There have been some real distribution days in the S&P.
- We have seen some leaders such as Under Armour (UA) under pressure from a third lower high.
- We have seen some breakaway gaps in leaders like Garmin (GRMN) and Baidu.com (BIDU) and now they have bounced back to test the level of the gap.
- The Chinese stocks may have blown off short-term anyway, given the large ranges and advance into yesterday on a bogus report about allowing the shares in Hong Kong and the mainland to trade as one.
- The India government caused a 10% hiccup in its market related to foreign money flows.
- The S&P has shown a change in character in recent days, albeit short term, although it did hit the big 1576 number like a brick wall as the market seemed invulnerable to all the bricks in the wall of worry it has been climbing becoming dislodged. The index is hovering at 1536, 90 degrees down from its high. 180 degrees down is 1497.
- If Google (GOOG) misses margins tomorrow will the S&P be magnetized to the 150 Spyder strike.
- If the Hanky Panky and Bazooka Ben throw another Hail Mary pass and mess with the playing field on a Friday once again and on an options expiration once again, the larger question is will the market like it or puke at the idea of such overt manipulation?
- Will market participants react favorably if this occurs or will they shrug on a Janet Jackson trade, "What have you done for me lately?"
- Will the market do a costume malfunction if Hank and Ben do a duo? All this sets up on the anniversary of Black Monday, of course.
- Is there anyone on the planet that thinks lightning can strike twice? I certainly don't. But is what everyone knows worth knowing?
Fed Intermeeting - Lance Lewis - 11:15 AM
I don't think there's any question that the Fed will ease again on the 31st, because the Fed needs to engineer a steeper yield curve in order to try and repair the banking system's highly leveraged balance sheet. Oh yeah, and there's "no inflation" according to the Labor Department's "core" CPI so the Fed has "cover" to do so in its mind.
But could the Fed pull a page from Uncle Al's 1998 playbook and surprise the market with an intermeeting rate cut tomorrow on the option expiration?
In October of 1998, which was the last big credit crunch that we experienced, the Fed surprised the market with a rate cut during the last hour of an option expiration Friday. I would think such a move today would be a low probability, but I don't put anything past this Fed. But with the dollar plunging to new lows this morning (importantly before the G7 even gets started tomorrow) and the 3M T-bill plunging back to nearly 100 bps below the Fed funds target rate, one wonders if the market might already be sniffing such a move out?
We shall see, but if Heli-Ben and his merry men do decide to pull this sort of a stunt, it will no doubt rally the stock market in the short term. Gold, however, will likely explode.
Position in GLD.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Daily Recap Newsletter