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Random Thoughts

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Blind catalysts are recipes for disaster without defined risk, remember, but keep that vibe in mind if you're involved.

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  • Do traders watch technicals because they work or do they work because traders follow them? I'm not sure but either way, they're in play. Case in point is Google, which picked up some steam after triggering sell-stops below acne support.

  • You're just kinda gently batting the bunny around, you know what I mean? Somebody call Mike and Trent 'cause we're going to Vegas, baby, on the 4th of July to celebrate MacroMaven Stephanie Pomboy 's Birthday. How do I buy stock in In-N-Out burger?

  • So, I Googled "Swingers" to get the above quote and had to step out of my office. I wonder how many people saw the URL's on my computer and drew inaccurate conclusions about what I do during the day (or at night, for that matter).

  • The savvy soothsayin' sommelier, Jeff Saut of Raymond James, hit the nail on the head with his recent vibes. Indeed, it's not the Sammy you see that you need to heed.

  • Our sense continues to be, however, that if rates continue to slither higher (and perception is that the trend is to the upside) that tailwind of periods past blow squarely in our face.

  • Man, I sure miss hanging with Jeff and similarly-ilked Minyans at our annual MIM retreat. We're trying to lock down specifics (there is a LOT going on at MVHQ) but we're eyeing the second week in October in Napa, for all those who continue to inquire, for a "back to basics," more intimate soiree.

  • A quick Dentyne Check finds market breadth stale and staler still, with NYSE internals hanging 5:1 negative. I see the Snapper attempt and I respect the action in the brokers.

  • But if the midday rally off the lows can't improve the internal readings, and it hasn't yet, odds are that it'll fade (read: sell) into the close. No tea leaf is absolute, we know, but it's something I've come to observe through the years.

  • The Following Buzz took place between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM…

    Now You's Can't Leave!

    I hear ya Sonny, it's gotten fugly in a hurry as Boo locks the door behind the bulls. The first request at an upside test (Lehman) was "spoken like a gentleman ," and indeed, it's still green. But as art imitates life, and vice versa, the failure to respect the Red Dye riders has led to an all-out brawl.

    While the saddest thing in life is wasted talent, the saddest thing in the market may be wasted tea leaves. In that vein, this morning's read urged caution as market breadth, the homies and Google all pointed south. The spice to the mix, the downside mush if you will, was (and is) the traction in Goldman and Lehman.

    Be that as it may, we're spying a downside test again, with the piggies poking through the 200-day (BKX 115) and the S&P eyeing 1490. If that latter level breaks, 1460 will be the beacon in the fright and step #2 in the world's most obvious 2007 market scenario.



    Hey, they say you don't with with JoJo, you walk among him. Perhaps the same can be said for this tape.

  • Other dry eyes? Intel, AMAT and Yahoo, which I can't seem to shake from my "this name is gonna be loud as a takeout candidate" mindset. Blind catalysts are recipes for disaster without defined risk, remember, but keep that vibe in mind if you're involved.

  • Suite Sixteen? The VXO is getting ready to drive, although it's below the voting age attained last week. We noodled ten themes at the beginning of this year and the return of volatility was front and center. Get used to it, Minyans, and use it to your advantage.

  • Good luck in the muck, Minyans, and fare ye well.


R.P.

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