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Random Thoughts


Is the path of least resistance higher into the meat of earnings season?

  • Levels of lore on a Monday eye sore? S&P 1540 on the upside and BKX 116 on the downside.

  • What happens if we push through on the upside? Professor Bennet Sedacca noodled those exact thoughts on today's Buzz and the results might surprise you.

  • Pep and Justin are traveling today and while I can't spill the beans on where they are, I will offer that I pity the fools who get in their way!

  • Our daily tells (or lack thereof) include even internals, jazzy beta (AAPL, G-double O-G) and flat financials (watch Grandma Goldman).

  • I noted the "reaction to news" in my morning opener. In particular, it was interesting to note that Intel price cuts were the "catalyst" for an 11% rally last week. At a different psychological juncture, that same news woulda been attributed to an 11% decline.

  • Reports of a Pearson-GE alliance bid for Dow Jones is an interesting twist in an already saucy plot. Even more interesting is the action in DJ, which is lower on the news and remains below the $60 tabled bid.

  • We've long discussed the Madison Avenue dilemma as satellite squeezes ad dollars from radio and DVR's do the same to TV. The Internet is the most obvious beneficiary but I still believe that video games will ultimately house a meaty slice of advertising inventory.

  • After last week's not-so-snazzy S&P put try (playing the pin pull to S&P 1525), I'm back to a more balanced posture, long some gamma and playing "more situations than market."

  • And so you know, given the set-up I saw last week, I woulda traded 'em the same way if given the chance (despite the loss). It's that whole "mechanics of the swing being more important than the results of the at-bat" thang.

  • Why do I wanna trade long gamma? Because I continue to believe that any time you can pick up volatility with braces (the VXO is 13), there will be several ways to win that bet.

  • I was speaking with a friend over the weekend about how lucky I am to have endured challenges. The analogy I used was the story of two puppies, one from a breeder and the other from a shelter. If you give them both a bowl of warm water, the pup from the breeder would snub his nose (that it wasn't cold) while the dog from the shelter would be very grateful just to have the water. I think that sorta sums up my mindset as I edge forward through this leg of life.

  • "My firm continues to be bullish on Equities with a 12-18 month S&P 500 target of 1,800. We expect the continuation of a mid-cycle slowdown, which means the economy and earnings stay positive, valuations expand modestly, the Fed remains neutral, long-term interest rates stay low (both historically and relative to last week's level) and the market climbs the SIGNIFICANT wall of worry." Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities.

  • And finally, some answers I really wanna know…

    • How great was Natalie Portman in The Professional?

    • Just another summer Monday?

    • Did you see Professor Jason Goepfert's salient vibes on large commercial hedgers?

    • What inning is the transfer of risk and the transfer of wealth in?

    • Is the path of least resistance higher into the meat of earnings season?

    • Particularly if we trigger the vacuum on the other side of S&P 1540?

    • Are you rationalizing risk?

    • Can you imagine how good the Yanks would be with healthy pitching and a solid bullpen?

    • Do active traders looking for good entry points and risk definition "see" Goldenstar $3.50?

    • How 'bout SunMicro $4.80?

    • Is Entourage losing some of its zest?

    • Y'all see the persistent bid in beta today?


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Position in gss, sunw, dj
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