Random Thoughts: Will This Rally Stick?
What, you thought it was gonna be easy?
Alrightee then, if you asked me what the most intuitive moves for today would be I would have offered the first, knee-jerk Snapper (as the found money bears squirreled their nuts) and the requisite trapper (as that demand dissipated). From there--and now--it gets a bit trickier given the nervous nellies and quick-triggered traders.
While I continue to trade 'em "cautiously" (and through the lens of defined risk), I'm always on the lookout for clues in the muse. Heck, I would get on all fours and watch the grass grow if I thought it would give me an edge (or blade, as the case may be).
So, I see the homies (remember we spied them on Friday) and I respect Goldman (which is outperforming its peers) and there isn't a trader in the world who doesn't expect Apple to beat estimates tonight (whether or not that's bullish remains to be seen). However, as Otis and I dance with the dates that got us here, it's hard for me to endorse the rally with the dollar stronger, commodities heavy and market internals laggy.
That is subject to change, quite naturally, as the market is multilinear and ever-changing. However, in real-time and right now, I'm treading lightly and adding some downside exposure into lifts. So, that's my take, which is sometimes right, sometimes wrong but always honest.
- You say potato and I say potato! While some technicians have said we've seen too much fear, too quickly, others will note that the S&P is tracing out a textbook double top.
- We vibed on this a month or so ago, asking if the path of maximum frustration is a pop (to new highs, sucking in technical longs) and drop. It's too early to tell but the dwell is front and center in my crowded keppe.
- While we spied the relative traction in the homies on Friday, I didn't touch them. There's an old adage on Wall Street: "Too smart to buy 'em, too scared to short 'em." I will say, however, that if they somehow spike to HGX 185, I'll likely get involved in the context of defined risk.
- Speaking of defined risk, Grandma Goldman is sniffing up to the head & shoulders resistance we spoke about this morning. I nibbled anew this morning and, in the interest of forthright communication, I was stopped out when the stock ticked at $224. You can try anything as long as you're disciplined, as bitter as a pill as it sometimes is.
- It took a few weeks but my Raiders have found their rightful resting spot as the AFC West Cellar Dweller. Sigh....might as well bring on Jamarcus at this point and see what the kid's got!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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