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Random Thoughts


Minyanville is sitting in a hot space right now and continued jig bodes very well for the critters.

  • "Remember Minyans, the gorillas aren't as trigga happy as the run n' gun crowd and, as such, they're strategizing today for implementation in the days ahead." Yesterday's Buzz.

  • 30,000,000 (yes, 30 million) EWJ (iShares Japanese shares) traded overnight (looks like a sale), hitting the tape this morning in four distinct prints.

  • Bank CEO Ken Lewis (no relation to Sunset stalker Edward Lewis) shared some interesting thoughts, saying that the credit bubble was about to break. "We are close to a time when we'll look back and say we did some stupid things. We need a little more sanity in a period in which everyone feels invincible and thinks this is different.' We need a deal to go bad, as long as we're not in it."

  • Care, bear? The savvy soothsayin' sommelier Jeff Saut and his lovely bride swing by MVHQ for hugs and handshakes---and to get a read on MIM4!--and voila, madam, Boo emerged from hibernation to say hello.

  • Denial--Migration--Panic. Those are the thee phases of any market move and while this is technically 'healthy' (after the run we've seen), the widespread and universal belief that this is simply a respite needs to be noted.

  • Mazel Tov! The VXO, up 11%, just became a man. Again.

  • How the heck can anyone--present company included--get on TV and say "the market WILL do 'this' going forward." First, nobody knows (and anyone who claims they do is a goniff) and second, offering that insight without addressing the time horizon and risk profile of the audience is very dangerous.

  • I rarely buy whole positions in one fell swoop (absent an immediate catalyst). I like to buy half--or a third--so I'm there and allow for some settlement before scaling into further exposure.

  • The value of shares traded on China's stock markets on Wednesday was greater than the rest of Asia combined – including Japan. Does anyone else get the sense that "long everything else in Asia , short " might be setting up for a good pairs trade?

  • Ripple through still auctions? This sorta makes Minyan Brooks look very smart!

  • "The bottom line is that today's action has a higher probability of finishing below the day's open. The overall trend remains solidly higher into expiration but the next one-two days offer more downside than upside risk." Professor Jason Roney on this morning's rockin' Buzz.

  • We mentioned this morning on the Buzz that the tea leaves are tart. Market breadth is 3:1 negative, the homies are gettin' O-dogged (HGX -2%), our financial duopoly remains below double secret resistance and the dollar (the ultimate, big picture contra-tell) is 25 bips to the north.

  • Dry eyes should Snapper surprise? The retailers, natch, with an eye towards RTH 106.5 and the semis, although the SOX stochastics are twisting more than the Marley clan.

  • Happy 40th to my brother--and former partner--Jeff Berkowitz. Man, you're old!!!

  • The Fed has spoken yesterday and left things just as they are. Shockingly, the spin was painted as a picture of Goldilocks--not too hot, not too cold, but juuuuust right. Let's remember, we rallied HARD on the notion that the FOMC removed the tightening bias yet, from what they continue to say, inflation remains their predominant concern (fed fund futures re-priced that perception).

  • Hands over eyes, "slower growth," "ongoing housing adjustments" and core inflation that is "somewhat elevated," has all the signs and every excuse to serve as a downside catalyst.

  • Watch our levels in the financials (XBD 260, BKX 118) and be conscious of the potential for a trap door below S&P 1498.

  • S-T-A--see you real soon. G-F-L--why? Because of Greenspan. A-T-I-O-N!

  • It's true that the "panic" phase (of the denial - migration - panic tri-fecta) is the quickest coin to pocket. But it's also the most dangerous.

  • I've heard some folks point to the 2003 tax cuts as the catalyst for the bull market. That was, in my opinion, simply a part of a much broader, coordinated stimuli agenda. Lower rates, liquidity injection, everything but the kitchen sink to make stocks the only game in town. Nothing comes for free, however--just ask foreign holders of dollar denominated assets.

  • Does that make it wrong? Nope. In fact, I can't help but wonder if I out-thunk the skunk by seeing it and not piling into it with two fists and a foot.

  • "If Fortress is the first of many hedge funds to tap the public appetite for risk--and more follow suit--the capital raised by these funds can then be leveraged, creating even more liquidity in the global marketplace. It could build to the point of exhaustion, but not before befuddling the bears who can't fathom the price action."

  • Record highs, bull markets, it's all good--trust me. Minyanville is sitting in a hot space right now and continued jig bodes very well for the critters. With that said, we've never been cheerleaders--it's not in our DNA--we're a bit more pragmatic, even though rah rah sells. We'll always tell it like it is and that, my friends, you can take to the bank.

  • If gold pulls back to $550-$575, as Professor Greg Weldon, one of the most ardent gold bugs I know, shared on CNBC yesterday senses it might, will you be in a position to aggressively add if you're in the bug camp?

  • Do you really think the commodities can fall (and the dollar can rise) without equities getting pulled into the spill? CRB 310 remains the level to watch in that regard.

  • Do you think Hank Aaron is bummed about bangin' Barry Bonds?

  • Please join ye Minyan faithful and a slew of Professors for an uber-fun event the Wednesday after next. Rizzo and Farley are gonna go and my money is on the Gold Medal winning captain!

    Join us for a "Miracle in Midtown"

    Wednesday May 23rd... benefiting charities including the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education

  • R.P.

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