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Time for a Breakout?

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In the last two days up was down and down was up.

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Is a new trend emerging? Is the market preparing to assault the July high in a new advance like it did after the March correction and after last summer's swoon? One of the most important discoveries of W.D. Gann was the relationship between time and price, the idea that they "squared out" at turning points of significance. In other words, at peaks and troughs, time and price become one in the same and a new trend emerges.

Of course turning points can be acceleration or a change in direction. Gann's idea was to square the range in price and in time.

For example, the range from the March 14 low to the July 19 high is 192 S&P points. 192 points from that March low is, yep, Friday.

Isn't that special, the end of quarter? Since stocks have been moving straight up since the August 16 low, it suggests to me that if this set-up for a turning point works, it is a peak.

It could be a point of acceleration but it seems that would be redundant.

In addition, the move up from August 16 will be in its seventh week come the new quarter while counting from the March low it will be seven months.

Yesterday was, in short, one of the weirdest and wackiest days I have ever seen. In the last two days up was down and down was up.

I'm thinking about taking a course in Swahili so I can better understand this market.

But seriously, it's hard to get a gauge and a grip. So it may be best not to get caught in the fray when the action has this kind of spray until the quarter end crosscurrents abate and the potential turning point tips its hand. From my perch, the financial fabric remains fragile, the economy may be tanking and the bullish sentiment reigns with Hoofy beating his chest about the market being out of the woods just as the new quarter begins and the S&P tests its highs and many leadership names are blowing off or testing their highs carving out possible double or triple tops.

In a nutshell, many stocks are struggling while it is up to a thinner and thinner list of names that money managers are piling into. That doesn't suggest a breakout to me.


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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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