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MV Weather Report: Top Callers Predicting Showers


Rain or shine, we review the day's biggest stock stories.


A popular saying on Wall Street is "the trend is your friend." Well right now the market is trending higher, but the popular trend among stock market forecasters is calling a top.
So, the question becomes, what do you do? Follow the trend of the market, or the trends of market pundits.

For the day, those top callers look as if they might be onto something. The S&P closed down -0.56% to 997. The market has been in a tight range all week between 990 and 1008. On Today's Buzz and Banter Branden Rife gave his thoughts on the action.

"Today we have numerous names on outside reversals & pivot reversals; including the S&P 500 (outside day). If said names and indices close in the lower quartile of their day's range, that would be another serious dent in the short term bull armor.

"Normally I like to see a bigger range in an outside day on the S&P!

"The only thing I wonder is how much are we taking away from the tape today that could exacerbate the magnitude of tomorrow (either way)?"

The event Rife is speaking of is tomorrow's jobs number that will be reported before the market opens at 8:30. Current analyst's estimates are calling for a loss 330,000 which would push the unemployment rate up to 9.6%.

Today on the Buzz and Banter, Minyanville Chief Todd Harrison filled readers in with his playbook going into the important economic report.

"Goldman Sachs (GS) just upped their forecast for tomorrow's breakfast with Beeks, predicting a loss of 250,000 jobs (vs. estimates of 300,000). I've got mixed emotions about that, sorta like watching Sir Larry Wildman driving off a cliff in my new Maserati.

"On the one hand, it raises the bar and makes a Debbie Downer more likely. On the other, for those in the camp that rally phases typically end on good news, it, well, raises the bar.

"What am I doing? With the exception of those disciplined "picks" earlier (with the NDX at 1600, or 2% lower than where I initiated the meat of my downside exposure), not much. I am, however, weighing an option that I'll quickly talk through.

"Given my "cut bait" stop loss is 2% above where I initiated risk--and we're currently 2% below that same level--I could conceivably cut my bet in half and take a "risk free" look at the number tomorrow (which would also give me ammunition to fade (make sales) if we get better-than-expected news). It's not a bad idea, but it's not one that I've opted for...Yet."

Have a great night!

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