Only Cash is Safe, Real

By Jeff Macke Sep 23, 2008 3:50 pm
A ban on shorting won't make us buy.
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Hello from the NASDAQ, where I'm fighting an encompassing shroud of phlegm and trying to discern reality from hallucination brought on by massive doses of DayQuil. Of course, this market is "confusing" even when the mind is at its clearest. If you want a real trip, try looking at it on antihistamines and espresso.

Here's what I'm wondering beyond "does everyone see rainbow-tracers on their fingers while they type?":
 

  • Did anyone else notice last week's announcement that United (UAUA) was blaming a drop in fuel prices for part of its massive losses? "Hedging." Suffice it to say, I doubt United is going to be the last airline to have to own up to buying the top.

  • Even if I didn't feel like the Boy in the Plastic Head-Cold Bubble today, I'd be doing less. Buy the dip on Goldman Sachs (GS)? Sure, just as soon as you tell me what the company does.

     
  • Whether it's well-intentioned or just opportunistic Minyanville's Why Wall Street Will Never Be the Sameposturing (you know my vote), Congress is now deciding it'll help with the bailout once "reasonable caps" for executive compensation are set - which more or less ensures nothing will happen soon.

  • Emotionally, outlawing short-sales is akin to demanding someone to love you; the more you insist, the more repulsive you become. You can make it hard for me to short, but you can't make me buy. In terms of actionable ideas, I'd love to give you more, but I don't have any myself. I'm sitting in cash, thinking of hobo names and watching Congressmen grandstand while the debt bubble burns.

  • The happiest thing I can say is that I'm pretty sure the cash I've got parked is both "safe" and "real."




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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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(13)
2008-09-23 16:06:29
Parked Cash Safe?
Your parked cash may be real, but its not safe. Our government is working overtime, doing everything it can to reduce the value of those dollars. Park it long enough and you wont have to worry about what to do with it. It will be worthless.
2008-09-23 16:42:11
Jay,
That may be true, but at least it won't be stolen from me by a bunch of corporate, political and financial thieves.
Between the corporations, the politicians, and the traders, we don't stand a chance!!
(another) Jay
2008-09-23 17:48:43
it will be stolen by the hidden tax, Inflation unless it's in hard assets (gold silver) and if you have it their look out for the paper trail between you and your broker the gov will make holding metals of value illegal before to long
2008-09-23 22:22:06
FREEZE! F.B.I. !
Oh my, the mother of all surprises. The FBI saves the free world from Bush, Bernanke and Hanky-Panky Paulson's blackmail and bailout!

SCORE ONE FOR THE LITTLE GUYS. Also, beat the crowd, dump your stocks first. Buy SDS and hold tight kids, if Crooked Cox hasn't rigged the market again by morning and banned buying inverse ETFs.

Every Minyan knows that the cooked books aren't only at LEH AIG FNM and FRE.

Get well soon Mr. Macke. I wouldn't be long the XLF with a ten-years-to-life pole.





2008-09-24 07:12:07
CNBC Cheerleading SICKENING
The staff of CNBC's grotesque pandering to Wall Street pigs has never been more blatant. Where's the OUTRAGE that the pigs are lining up at the trough to collect another TRILLION of our hard-earned money?

The news that the FBI is looking into the cooked books of the last 4 bailed-put firms is hardly being reported on your plutocratic pigman network.

WHY IS CNBC IN FAVOR OF GIVING MORE MONEY TO THE PIGS WHO COOOKED THEIR BOOKS AT AIG, Freddie and Fannie?

YOUR COLLEAGUES SICKEN ME MACKE. YOUR WHOLE NETWORK IS A DISGRACE. NO WONDER GENERAL ELECTRIC GOT PUT ON THE NO-SHORT SALE LIST, THEY ARE COOKING THE BOOKS AS WELL.

IT IS HIGH TIME THE LOOTING OF OUR TREASURY BY YOUR CRIMINAL FRIENDS IS STOPPED.

Anyone who can't see that this Bailout bill is BLACKMAIL deserves to go to jail with the crooks at AIG FNM and FRE.

2008-09-24 08:46:15
CNBC Cheerleading SICKENING
Taking it out of the all-caps, let's address directly your outrage at the financial press and CNBC in particular.

Here's what I know: being on CNBC is painting a bullseye on your forehead. I've got a big forehead and fully expect to be mocked every bit as much as I once mocked the "talking heads".

Two differences, one about me one making an actual point. Re: Me: I honestly don't mind. I've got the gift of a nightly platform to argue the world as I see it. I'm not "on the take". I don't have "secret positions". I've got a platform every night to prove myself, over the long term (meaning: weekly), to be either bright or buffoon. I realize most folks watching will assume the latter. I'm cool with that. I have nothing to prove.

Second, and here's where I think I can help, Michael. The people reporting on your television fall into two camps. They are either reporters or they are entertainers. Ideally, if they're in the latter camp (where I'd, regrettably, have to put myself since I'm certainly not a reporter), they know something about finance.

I can feel the anger out there. I speak directly to the anger, every day. I openly joke about the short-selling witch-hunt going on right now.

To quote Bud Fox, quoting Gekko, quoting Buffett quoting Ben Graham: don't get emotional about stocks. You have to trade the world that exists, not the world you wish there was. You can rage at the pandering but it's hard to trade it. My personal choice is to refuse to pander, call it as I see it and share why I know in an entertaining way.

The books were crooked when I got here. They'll be crooked when I leave. If I can figure out the game then I can profit while it exists and leave before it implodes. If General Electric actually took cues from me (and they don't) they wouldn't have asked to be put on the "No short list" in the first place. I would have told them to specifically request NOT to be put on the list.

"Let 'em short us all they want" I would have advised Mr. Immelt, "then go kick the crud out of your quarterly estimates and make them pay".

They don't listen to me. The reporters are just reporting. If you want actual opinions of people who don't, exactly, work for the parent company thrown around tune into Fast Money at 5. If you're watching before then, you're watching reporters. They know more about reporting than I do but I'm a better market player than they are.

That's as it should be. As for my colleagues... some of them are my friends some of them aren't but I don't know any of them to be crooked. They are doing their best to report information as it breaks in a marketplace they don't understand.

It's not as easy as it looks. Look for the trade. Don't get lost in the noise.
2008-09-24 10:23:17
Thanks...I'm off the ledge for now
Mr. Macke:

Thank you as always for your insight, and brilliance. Sorry for the CAPS but ACRIMONY is called for at this CRITICAL and PIVOTAL time in the history of our once-great United States.

I'm not emotional about stocks, but I am very emotional about the President BLACKMAILING the Congress into ACTING QUICKLY OR ELSE!!!

If most of your colleagues are not insiders, then they are financially incompetent and you should demand that they read Minyanville over the weekend to get a clue about what is going on here!

Remember Kevin Depew's article on Bill Gross DOING THE FREAK OUT? THAT'S WHAT PAULSON AND BERNANKE ARE DOING RIGHT NOW. THEY ARE CREDIT JUNKIES AND THEY WANT YET ANOTHER FIX THAT WILL COST US ALL AND THEY HAVE STOOPED TO BLACKMAIL AND LIES TO ATTEMPT TO GET UNCHECKED POWER OVER NEARLY A TRILLION DOLLARS!

Tell Toddo I am holding Hoofy and Boo HOSTAGE until he demands that this BLACKMAIL IS STOPPED!!!

Mr. Macke, remember, I didn't say YOU were on the take, I said your colleagues were, and yes, I will agree with you, not all of them are. Karen had the courage to short Lehman and tell us. But if Karen knew Lehman was cooking its books she also knows that JPM, GE, GS, MS, C, and several others are hiding their losses in Level 3 assets and other off-balance sheet LIES!!! COME ON KAREN, THIS IS NO TIME TO SELL OUT YOUR VIEWERS TO THE SAME PEOPLE WHO AIDED AND ABETTED ENRON!!!

DO SOMETHING IMMEDIATELY OR HOOFY GETS THE BULLET!!! (Sounds like Bush & Paulson doesn't it?)

Thanks for having the courage to tell us all that you told GE what you did. I APPLAUD YOUR SINCERITY. Please forgive me for getting emotional while our nation is BLACKMAILED by a CORRUPT LYING PRESIDENT AND HIS CORRUPT TREASURY SECRETARY.

GO READ SECTION 8 OF BUSH'S PROPOSAL WHERE HE DEMANDS THAT THERE BE NO ACCOUNTABILITY FOR PAULSON AS HE SPENDS THE LOOT. IF YOU AND CNBC CAN'T SEE THAT THIS IS BLATANTLY UNCONSTITUTIONAL, YOU SHOULD ALL BE FIRED. OR JAILED.

I'M BACK ON THE LEDGE AND I'M GOING TO PUSH HOOFY AND BOO TO THEIR DEATHS FIRST.
2008-09-24 10:29:12
Today's definition of "cash"
What is "cash"? In light of our current situation, I hope this isn't considered a dumb question. Cash consisting of what? Where? Money market funds (composed of other stuff, including treasury bonds)? Bank CDs? Fiat currency (gasp)? Am I crazy for doubting the longer-term stability of treasury bonds, which make up a lot of what we currently call cash? Seriously - is even "cash" safe today? Yes, it's supposed to be liquid, but I can envision scenarios where that may become less true.

It's not my intention to sound apocalyptic; I just really want to know what you all think.
2008-09-24 10:52:51
Thanks...I'm off the ledge for now
Has it occurred to you that you are YELLING at the wrong people ? And that ALL CAPS, besides being rude, also detracts from the reasonable appeal of your message ? We Minyans have some standards in our dialogue, ya @$#$.
2008-09-24 11:48:48
Who is Jeff Macke and why should anyone care what...
...he thinks?...as best as I can find he ran a hedge fund that's no longer in business...and "Macke Asset Management" is nothing but a dead end website ("mackasset.com") that doesn't list even an address or phone number...but Minyanville feels he merits publication?...why????
2008-09-24 11:51:41
No time to be nice, what's left of the US is under attack from within
Sorry Minyan Dave, this is war. My grandfathers didn't politely fight the Nazis, they screamed LOUDLY as they fired bullets at Nazis like Bernanke who according to "Blind Bob" Pisani's reporting said:

"Update: "Putting capital into healthy or reasonably functional banks might frighten off private money that could come in."

That's Chairman Bernanke, responding to questions about why he is resisting proposals to allow the government to take an ownership stake in companies in exchange for buying bad debt.

He says that "concern might arise that the government is going to wipe out other shareholders" as a further reason not to entertain this idea.

Mr. Bernanke is trying to distinguish between a bank who is failing and needs an injection of capital, where taking warrants might be appropriate, and the current case, where institutions are not failing. The Fed here is trying to return liquidity to the markets.

Finally, requiring ownership, Mr. Bernanke warns, could dramatically lower the participation rate in the program. "

OUR CONGRESS MUST STOP THIS! NO TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION AND NO MORE MONEY FOR WALL STREET CROOKS.

BERNANKE IS COVERING FOR HIS WALL STREET CRIMINAL CO-CONSPIRATORS BY DEMANDING THAT WE THE TAXPAYER NOT GET ANY OWNERSHIP OR ANY PROFITS IN THE COMPANIES HE DEMANDS THAT WE SAVE!!! THIS IS WHAT TODDO SAID WHEN WE PRIVATIZE PROFITS AND SOCIALIZE THE LOSSES. DO NOT BE FOOLED!!!

HOW BLIND ARE YOU? I JUST KICKED BOO RIGHT IN THE NUTS. NO TIME TO PLAY NICE THE FUTURE OF THE COUNTRY IS AT STAKE, DO NOT LET BERNANKE AND PAULSON AND DIMON STEAL WHAT IS LEFT!!!

DO ANY OF YOU REALIZE THE INTEREST PAYMENTS ON A TRILLION DOLLARS???

BACK ON THE LEDGE BOO. YOU'D BETTER HOPE TODDO AND MACKE AND DEPEW TAKE ACTION!!!


2008-09-24 16:52:16
Who is Jeff Macke and why should anyone care what...
I think you're looking for the Yahoo message boards, Ray.
2008-09-24 19:00:58
Today's definition of "cash"
Amen to the last post by señor Macke and to señor Dave's comment as well. The recriminations and desperation are most unbecoming at ordinarlily level-headed (but not dispassionate) Minyanville.

Moving on, here's an amatuerish stab at the apocalyptic concerns of Lesley's post. I'll hope for further input by the more knowledgeable and informed.

I understand that, starting a few days ago, money market funds are insured. Bank CD's are insured. Thus you could ask how big the insurance pool is. Not very, according to the news I've seen, and even if were bottomless the payments from it would be affected inflation. Cash deposits are solid until everyone wants theirs all at the same time. For a worst case scenario try Zimbabwe. Gold may be a great defense but is hard to get in useful small "denominations" and subject to confiscation (not again !) by the gov't. A Minyan poster on a thread about gold derided it and said that rather than gold, "Lucky Strikes" were used as currency in the depression. I guess that puts a heavy burden on the small % of the population that still smokes ! I doubt they could absorb everyone's currency; talk about toxic assets ! Buy RAI, MO ? Go the survivalist route and hoard fuel and canned goods ? Seems that the 700 B, on top of everything to date, would seriously devalue the $.

On the other hand, there's a lot of concern at Minyanville about deflation, so maybe you and I needn't worry about wheeling barrows of paper to the store after all.
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