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Freaky Thursday Potpourri: Trading on Fantasy Island

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These markets can make one go nuts.

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Dear Mr. Fantasy, play us a tune
Something to make us all happy
Do anything to take us out of this blue
Sing a song, play guitar, make it snappy

(Traffic)

Does anyone else feel like a moth in a light bulb factory? We've got freaky financials to the left, crazy crude to the right and bickering, flickering ticks all over. It's enough to make you nuts and old school Minyans will tell you I'm well on my way.

As I cast one eye on the elasticity of credit, er, retail sales and the other towards tomorrow night's Petty-Winwood Boston T-Party, I'm letting the goose loose and spew as I do without further adieu.

  • Point of parliamentary procedure, I swapped out of Gold Fields (GFI) yesterday for straight up GLD calls. This, of course, is paired against my USO puts.

  • This position was legged into "dollar neutral" but I skewed it heavily to the short side of crude as a function of price. This was, of course, discussed in real-time on the Buzz & Banter.

  • With S&P 1350, Hoofy has his back to the wall as he sucks straws through the squall. The March lows (S&P 1275) are the next, intuitive level of lore.

  • Remember our theme of the transfer of wealth? It takes many forms.

  • As go the piggies, so goes the poke. We don't say it because we like the way it sounds-we say it because it's the strongest tell in our finance-based marketplace.

  • F-R-E-E that spells free. Credit report dot.com, bay-be.

  • Goldman (GS) is now down 35% since October, when the phrase "best of breed" was making the round on the streets. I faded (read: bought) this name yesterday with one eye on $160 and the other on the oversold field position into earnings.

  • SO, does trading make you A.D.D. or do A.D.D. people make better traders? I wanna figure that out but keep forgetting to do so.

  • Why can't I listen to Phil Collins and Genesis without thinking of Christian Bale in American Psycho?

  • How does someone with a fledging financial fitness franchise assimilate the perception that folks will need to become more proactive in the efforts versus the adage that the opposite of love isn't hate, it's apathy?

  • What's the last thing I "wanted" to do last night after a long day? Schlep up to East Harlem to the Children's Aid Society "East Harlem Idol" pageant.

  • What's the BEST thing I've done in a very long time? Schlep to East Harlem to see the smiles and hear the laughter of hundred's of children. The Ruby Peck Foundation is a big supporter of CAS and I could feel my grandfather's energy as his spirit manifested in kind. Thanks, Grandpa-I needed that.

  • If you looked up "where there's smoke, there's fire," you would prolly find a picture of Lehman Brothers (LEH).

  • Goldman wouldn't buy Lehman. Would it?

  • How long do you think it'll be before taxi cabs are allowed to pick up multiple passengers in the big city? That should help the societal acrimony!


Question: If people can barely afford gas, is alternative energy really worth the investment?

My two cents:

Alternative energy sounds great conceptually but given the option, people will choose to feed their kids before they save a tree.

A friend of mine recently installed solar panels in his home but it will take 8 years for him to achieve cost savings.

So why did he do it? As a hedge against brown-outs that he feels will inevitably roll through this great nation of ours.

More Randoms:

  • I'm being told that the Lowry's Buying Power Index is at the lowest level since 1982. That shows a lack of demand for stocks. In a new bull market, demand explodes higher. We're not seeing that right now.

  • To add spice to that mix, never in the 75-year history of that fabled firm did the Buying Power Index make new lows eight to ten weeks after an important market bottom.

  • This fits nicely into the "risk reduction" mindset that we've been monitoring in Minyanville. Social mood and risk appetites shape the tape.


R.P.

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Positions in GLD, USO, GS
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