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Random Thoughts: Will Turnaround Tuesday Stick?


Financials are today's ball and chain.

  • The previous lows in the USO ($27ish) can be used as defined risk for those looking for such things.

  • The standout action today? It's gotta be the dollar, Yo, which is up a percent and a laugh against a basket of currencies.

  • Asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation is an "eye from the sky" dynamic but big moves must be respected as the implications are omin... er... obvious.

  • The uber-svelte Snoop Tony Dwyer makes a good point on the Staples (SPLS) corporate bond deal yesterday, following its 5-year senior note at 9.75% (or 800 bips over Treasuries). The company didn't have to do this particular deal until July, which infers that it foresees a worsening macroeconomic landscape between now and then.

  • Maybe it's true what they say-bald guys got good eyes!

  • I'm making a conscious effort not to get swept up in the societal stress and sadness. The easiest way to do this, regardless of your particular lot in life? Be thankful and appreciate what you have. Gratitude is latitude and this too shall pass.

  • Bikini? Tall. Banks? Fall (-1.25%). She said, she saw, the pennant.

  • Congrats to Minyanville's Emmy Award winning scribe Justin Rohrlich for winning Employee of the Quarter! Given I (again) failed to garner a single vote, I would also like to take this opportunity to remind our team at MVHQ that yes, I am indeed eligible!

  • Remember five years ago when I said I wanted to short the financials and open a taco stand in Costa Rica? Perhaps there's another opportunity to slap on a trade and swim, snorkel, dive and sail in Australia?

  • Jeezums, crude has more swings than a Hedonism Vacation.

  • Him doesn't like it when I let the cat out of the bag but I'll say this. The Minyanville experience is in the process of seismically shifting. You have no idea what I'm talking about, I'm sure. But don't worry, you will some day.

  • The tape may want to rally for Turnaround Tuesday but it'll have a hard time without sponsorship in the financial complex. Goldman (GS), Citigroup (C) and Bank America (BAC)-holy cow, BAC is a hat size?!?-remain front and center in that regard.

  • T-minus seven days until the baton is passed. That's not a political statement as much as being mindful of an important inflection point through a geopolitical lens.

  • My positions are smallish like the hands of a circus carny but thematically, I'm still long a spate of USO and a snivlet of Morgan Stanley (MS) puts. In order to remove emotion, I've set the stops below and above the recent lows and highs, respectively.

  • Keep half an eye on General Electric (GE), which is quietly off 6%. I could lament that I was short this stock and covered but the truth of the matter is that I've been long and short most stocks over my career and looking back is wasted energy.

  • Goodfellas was really released 18 years ago? I officially feel old. Somebody please call Janet Rossi in 2R.

  • Yeah, I know, I'm a strange bird. You should see the thoughts that don't make it to the 'Ville!


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Positions in MS, USO
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