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Purple Crayon Broken For Crude


Only place to go is down.


Greetings from New York, where it's so hot I'm concerned about being trapped like a woolly mammoth in the soupy tar that once served as Times Square. Here's what I'm mulling (besides how undressed is too undressed below the waist at a desk-based, basic cable television show):

  • The Purple Crayon Uptrend in crude and the USO ETF is being badly assaulted today. I'm long, for now, but not oblivious; we're on the cusp of the stop. I'm not overthinking the loss (set 5% below my entry). Indeed, "Not overthinking" is the point of the trend. If/when I sell, all I'm concerned about is how I'm going to explain we're no longer long on crude to Mrs. Jeff Macke. I've notified Najarian that he's in charge of breaking the news.

  • I did three Crayon Uptrend plays last week, one for each semi-cult at the time. Of the three -- Potash (POT), Arch Coal (ACI) and the USO -- only Potash is above the trend at the moment, and even that's looking pretty punk into the close.

  • Where's the money going? I'm no money-flow expert. But, to take a random stab, I'd say maybe to financials. Goldman Sachs (GS) being up 10 more bones is keeping me pretty laid-back on the USO potential stop-out.

  • What's the catalyst for a 15% two day move in the XLF? Short covering, financial apocalypse delayed or just a wild stampede of trend-seekers buying stocks you couldn't give away at Tuesday's open seem equally likely suspects.

  • Hats off to Jon Najarian, who came on Fast Money Monday and said he liked General Motors (GM) for a trade. GM, which is every bit as likely to go bankrupt at $120 crude as it is at $140, is up over 1/3 since the call.

  • In anticipation of "commodities aren't a bubble, it's demand... And you're a lousy trader and a bad dresser, Macke" comments on my (still pending) quick trigger with crude: I'm happy to own up to all the charges. What I won't do is throw out my reasons for a trade ("the trend") to justify sticking with a loser. The trend, as I saw it, is more or less broken in crude. Discipline is the only survival strategy for this tape.
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Position in USO

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