Wells Fargo Wagons Hot to Trot?

By Jeff Macke Apr 07, 2009 4:00 pm

Shorting every bank may not be winning strategy.



Greetings from New York, where I'm celebrating my birthday by going to breakfast with the kids, doing MSNBC and CNBC, followed by dinner with Todd-O and the lovely and talented Mrs. Jeffmacke. It's not exactly table dancing in Vegas but, as Tuesday's go, I'll take it. Thank all of you who sent along good birthday wishes. Those of you who didn't have roughly 8 hours until your names go on the list of enemies I keep under my desk blotter.

Here's what I'm watching when not modeling myself after Richard Nixon:
 

  • It's obvious that the Nattering Nabobs of Negativity should take note of the price action in Goldman Sachs (GS), which has been strong all day. What really stings the "Short 'em all!" camp is a stock like my Wells Fargo (WFC). SF's finest (sorry, Bank of America (BAC)) opened near its lows,, and has been crawling its way back all day. 

  • The lessons from Wells' price action? First: Mr. Market respects the fact it's my birthday. Second: As the male member of my dinner entourage is fond of saying, "Respect, but don't defer, to the price action." I respect stocks going up when they have every reason on earth to bide some time.

  • Speaking of my birthday (and I warned you all yesterday that this week was, in fact, going to be all about me), the harlot SDS ETF purchased yesterday is treating me much better today. I'm cool having on hedges, and don't mind being long the levered version as long as I have a specific directional bet in mind. I'm playing the SDS for an S&P 500 move to 810 to 800 sooner, rather than later.

  • MGM Grand (MGM) is crapping out today with the rest of the group. Going to zero may be lower probability than a couple months ago - but, from where I'm sitting (leaning boozily against the table demanding a hit on my 18 because "I feel a 3!"), the group is to be avoided until the consumer improves or Barkley gets back to Vegas; and I'm not sure the latter has enough left to carry the whole Strip.

  • What have I done today, in between staying utterly unfocused? Trimmed tiny bits of winners and very little beyond that. As previously whined about, I'm annoyingly under invested but "Thou Shall Not Force Trades" was on the flip side Moses' tablets (the side reserved for greedy traders).

 
With that, I'm off to have my make-up retouched. Make it a great birthday Minyans and, no pressure or anything, but my advice is you do what you can to stay off that enemies list.

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Position in SDS, WFC

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