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Doin' It Bloggystyle: Bustle in Hedge Row


Minyanville brings together the best of what they are saying "out there" about the topics we're talking about right here.

Blogs themselves need no introduction, as they get as much publicity as pretty much anything these days, save maybe the latest Britney news. There's an expanding world of excellent financial blogs, covering just about everything, from global economics to swing trading. Minyanville's goal is to bring together the best of what they are saying "out there" about the topics we're talking about right here.

Fed thoughts as I wonder whether Bonzo Bonham faked his demise in order to resurface as a Federal Reserve chair 25 years later.
  • All that action and not much impact so far, as per the Aleph Blog.
  • We've seen the Greenspan put come and go, how about the Bernanke Call?
  • And can the Bernanke Butterfly and Bernanke Iron Condor be far behind, wonders Tradeking.

After the Gold(man) Rush

  • Just don't call it a Rescue, from FT Alphaville.
  • Jeff Matthews looks at "When the Gamma of the Beta Begins to Lose its Alpha."
  • AllAboutAlpha examines whether hedge fund attrition is as bad as meets the eye.
  • Like me and having trouble learning how to speak "Hedgie"? Dan Gross has a handy translation guide on Slate.

They said it...

  • Mark Hulbert: " turns out that the VIX's market timing abilities derive from no special insights of its own, but instead only as a proxy for the stock market's tendency to rebound after steep corrections." Hat tip to Abnormal Returns.
  • Love this analysis by the dk Report: "Thankfully, investors didn't lose any money on Tuesday. They just saw their stocks transferred from the perception of being higher to that of being lower."
  • Veryan Allen: "The best risk management rule I know is 'If it can happen, it will happen'. The trouble with standard deviation is it just measures STANDARD deviations. The market is never 'normal'; it just oscillates from one extreme to the other. Chaos and complexity aren't black swans, they are permanent features of the markets. Volatility is analogous to energy in that it can hide as potential energy but it is always around. Curious how these 'once in a 100,000 years' storms occur every few years and blow away anyone who hasn't battened down the hatches. Usually after just a long enough gap in time for some to say volatility is 'permanently' contained!"

Baseball Quants

  • So since we last backtested AL East standings a couple month's ago, much has happened.
  • The Yankees rallied from a low of 6.5 in early July, to 20 bid, 23 offer now, as per Tradesports.
  • What does that mean? That's what you pay to win 100, so you convert those numbers to a percentage.
  • And if you believe the BaseballProspectus statistical modeling, the market is exactly correct. They give them 22.97% odds to win the division.
  • So no "stats arb" here!
  • World Series winner? Red Sox (17.5) and Yankees (15) are the two faves in the betting market (go figure). Mets 3rd (10).
  • A couple months ago I thought maybe the Padres were a cheap shot. I'll flipflop on that one and "sell" and go up the coast a bit and synthetically go long the Angels at 10.
  • Really more a value play than anything else. Their odds of making the playoffs are 88.5% as per BP. And once there, gotta figure they have as good a shot as any team to get out of the AL.
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