Seven Reasons Not to Trust the Bull Market
All we're buying is time.
So keep on playing those mind games together
Faith in the future, outta the now
You just can't beat on those mind guerrillas
Absolute elsewhere in the stones of your mind
"Mind Games," John Lennon
Everybody gets so much information all day long that they lose their common sense.
Has the hurricane passed or are we in the eye of the hurricane? Whether you mine for bullish or bearish points of reference, there are always positive or negative nuggets to glom onto to support whatever you believe. The future is never knowable per se, but there are tools to sharpen an edge. However, the greatest danger in investing lies with being optimistic about what is undeniably unknowable. If there is anything currently that is certain, it is uncertainty.
Let's connect some dots:
- The leading culprit and protagonist for our economic ills has been the housing debacle. The inability of homeowners to cope with higher resets and declining values in turn crushed major financial institutions.
- Struggling to survive, institutions willingness to lend evaporated--including their willingness to rollover existing loans.
- Down goes commerce, up goes unemployment.
The government of the US works on the premise that it is omniscient and has the power to avert an economic collapse.
This is the legacy of the generation that grew out of the Great Depression and won World War 2. The unrivaled military power of the US has been called into question since the Vietnam War, and recently the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
You have to consider how long these wars have persistent in the context that the US conquered Europe in 4 years. The unrivaled supremacy of the US dollar is being called into question, which in turn calls into question the US's ability to be the world's policeman.
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