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Randoms: Quarter-End Looms

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Playing the tape one day at a time.

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Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial). It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Slippery When Wet!


Gate Sniffage! - 9:58 am

The freak that is Friday is front and center as we power up for the final fifth of our freaky week. With quarter-end on tap--and those influences likely abating today, in front of the transition--I offer these top-line vibes as we ready to exhale for a weekend on the hardwood.

  • I enter today's fray with a flat pad, fresh head and open eyes. There are times I wanna scale into risk (either way) and times I'm in "hit it to quit it" mode. I'm firmly in the latter camp at present as I hit for average rather than power.

  • Get your credit where credit's due, but also understand what credit is implying if we fast forward five years.

  • You wanna see the biggest flag in the market (figuratively and perhaps literally)? Check out this chart of the VXO, which is the angst index on Wall Street. Pennant formations, as we know, typically break in the direction of the prevailing trend.

  • Scary thing is, I had a premonition yesterday that something like this could again rear it's ugly head.

  • Green beans in the red sea? Texas Instruments (TXN), Amgen (AMGN), Novellus (NVLS), the autos (General Motors (GM)) and Research in Motion (RIMM).

  • A tale of two shapes? Check out these two charts, both of which have gappage between $50ish and $56ish. Amazon (AMZN) to the downside and RIMM to the upside. The winner of this particular battle fillage will likely be a precursor to the next market leg.

  • Remember, after a big move, there is usually a probe (the following morning) in the same direction. Boo would be wise to wait for that before slapping on downside exposure, should that be his game plan.

  • Nine hours til tip-off. The Sooners are tough... but so is the Big East. I'm not jawing--I know better--so suffice to say I'm looking forward to bellying up with some friends and enjoying the journey through the madness of March. Fare ye well today, Minyans, and let's end this week with some jingle in our jeans.


Minyan Mailbag: Quarter-End - 10:45 am

Toddo,

Understanding the mentality of money managers and traders from a tactical perspective, I was just wondering if you thought they would make every effort to hold the monthly gains into quarter-end?

Thanks,
Minyan Britney


MB,

Way back when, the games people played would jack 'em into the last day of the quarter, when Spitzer arrived on the scene (not that scene, the other scene), portfolio managers "wised up" and operated into the second to last day before the quarter.

My sense is that they'll bid below (into Tuesday) rather than attempt to gun their positions but I'll again share that, big picture, the buyers are higher and the sellers are lower. I can't stress the importance of the reactive environment enough and we continue to look for a return to normalcy (sector rotation would be a nice, anecdotal sign that we've taken a step in that direction).

-Toddo


Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 11:49 am


Trippin' towards the Tip-Off - 1:15 pm

  • A clean, pure sniff of our tea leaves warrants caution. We talk about quack count in the 'Ville--when our trading tells align--and a look at breadth, banks, beta and the dollar points our critter compass south by southwest.

  • My eyes continue to spy that double bottom for the homies (HGX). Remember, they were the first sector to start spiraling and, as the market is a leading indicator, the stocks will lift before the data confirms the sea change.

  • I'm all for unique personalities but I wish Minyan Editor Matt Theal wouldn't walk into the office like this every morning.

  • Why was "Hooverville" the first thing that popped into my keppe when I saw this?

  • Is anyone else really looking forward to some serious hoopage this weekend?

  • So... how much of the 20-something percent rally was fronting a shift in mark-to-market?

  • WWBD?


R.P.



In memory of our fallen friend and trusted colleague, Bennet Sedacca, 100% of the donations made to the RP Foundation through April will be channeled to philanthropic endeavors consistent with the RP mission, working closely with the Sedacca clan in the distribution of those funds. We thank you kindly for your support as we strive to effect positve change in the lives of children.

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