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Random Thoughts: Will We Hold or Will We Fold?


If you're staring at every tick, you have too much exposure on.

  • The midday market probe arrived fast and furious after AMBAC (ABK) and MBIA (MBI) ratings were cut to negative from stable by the S&P.

  • Will we hold or will we fold? It's Dicier than the Bellagio out there and my eyes are feverishing pitching between the financials (BKX and XBD still green), breadth (3:2 negative now--this was the fly earlier), big beta (still holding a bid but this, we know, can change quickly...which is why it's called big beta) and the dollar (rallying to session highs, which I view as an overt negative for asset classes en masse).

  • Tricks of the Trade: If you're staring at every tick, you have too much exposure on.

  • Seriously, how many languages do you think Rosetta Stone knows for real?

  • It should be said that the longer the financials slither sideways, the less constructive I'll become. Yes, one can make the case that they're trying to base above multiyear support but an equal argument can be made that they're working off the oversold condition as a function of time rather than price.

  • Yes, I'm conscious, aware and respectful of the potential for a January bounce (after funds splurge on their urge to purge) but given my big picture bent, I'm entirely a'ight erring to the side of caution. It's consistent with the capital preservation, debt reduction and financial literacy mantra we so often discuss.

  • Face it, you'll never be long enough as the markets trade higher and you'll always be too long when they trade lower. It's an inevitable curse.

  • THE level, of course, is S&P 1490. See it, feel it, touch it, be it.

  • There are numerous lessons nestled in the Goldman-Mother Morgan mirror image. Both were flattish pre-opening and both told the tale for a trade.

  • Man, I can't shake this bug. I wonder if it's Bird Flu? Haven't heard that scare in a while... it must not be an election year yet!

  • What lunchbox did you have as a kid? I can't wait until OUR kids have Hoofy and Boo lunchboxes!

  • We used to play for silver now we play for life. Yeah, I used to trade for dollars now I play with strife. Take what the market gives you, Minyans, and adapt your style. The key is to stay in the game and await high probability opps.

  • Great, now I can't get the image of Ruprecht out of my head every time I look at Mother Morgan (MS).

  • I'm juggling a LOT at present as we finalize Minyanland and The Exchange and ready for a high-level midday meld. Thanks kindly for the patience and know that we're working for ye!

  • Fare ye well as we mount the second-to-last weekly Hump of 2007!


No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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