Randoms: Countdown to Our Catalysts
Cisco is an appetizer in front of Friday's payroll report.
- Has anybody seen a Goldman (GS) employee (GS) and Jimmy Conway in the same room at the same time?
- When I spoke yesterday at the NYSSA, something I said seemed to illicit alotta scribbles. "When the government bought the cancer and sold the car crash, the risk needle shifted to point in the direction of the geopolitical arena.
- You say "High Frequency Trading" and for some reason, the first thing I think of is Goldman Sachs. I have no idea why but I'm always honest so I thought I would share. Do you think HFT is to GS what the "secret sauce" is to McDonald's (MCD)?
- MIND THE GAP between NDX 1612 and 1603 (from Monday's opening).
- The most bullish thing on my screen? The sticky green Bank America (BAC).
- The most bearish thing on my screen? 2:1 negative breadth and looming resistance.
- How am I positioned? Like this!
- Binary Friday? The bogey from Beeks is a loss of 328,000 jobs. A substantial beat will usher in an initial jam higher. THE question we need to wrestle with is, as this rally phase will likely end on good news, will this report qualify as that catalyst?
- The other bogey is The Cisco Kid (CSCO), Señor Chambo, who will report earnings tonight. The coiner of such killer phrases as "the show me economy" is expected to put on a brave face so anything less might be perceived as a Debbie Downer. No edge on my end, just thinking out loud as we fit together the pieces.
- Credit issuance has been on an absolutely torrid pace, prompting respected seers in select circles to weigh the potential emergence of a second debt bubble. I know-it seems insane, right? We pride ourselves on seeing both sides in the 'Ville and offer that though that very vein.
- "As I tell my kids, fair doesn't mean equal. And right now, what's fair is being determined by Washington." Minyan Peter in yet another excellent missive on the deconstruction of embedded toxicity.
- Double Shot! Minyan Peter scribed another gem that is an absolute must read for Minyans. I think he hit the nail on the head and while most folks might cringe at the notion-sorta like a kid having to take a tablespoon of cough medicine-the benefits of his perspective far outweigh the sour taste it might initially leave.
- The strangest thing about my current positioning? A snapshot of current levels is higher than where I initiated the lion's share of my risk on Thursday. While I picked (small) into that first dip and added back into Monday's rip, I continue to sit in this stuffy bear costume. I would be lying if I said I wasn't sweating but that's what I get for dressing in fur in the middle of August. Defined risk remains my best friend (sorry Fish and no offense, Phoebe).
- NASDAQ COMP 200ish. Capice? I've got a mental 2% stop upstairs. In a perfect world (yeah right), we'll see some slippage today and/or tomorrow (that gives us breathing room between Thursday's close and Friday's Breakfast with Beeks) followed by a much better-than-expected jobs report and a pop & drop leading to a quick ten percent correction. Just putting it into the universe. With humility, of course.
- Kumquat is my favorite sounding fruit.
- Should we add FASB to the list of potential downside catalysts alongside, swine flu, municipalities, pension issues and commercial real estate?
- Is anyone else concerned conventional wisdom has already embraced the notion that the financial crisis continues to get smaller in the rear-view mirror?
- If the next 20% is to the downside, we'll look at things like the Newsweek cover (The Recession is Over!) with a knowing sense of vuja de'.
- The tape doesn't trade that way, I know, but I'll ask you to remember how fugly the market was as we probed the March bottom. Respect, Minyans, but never defer.
- "Many are referencing history as a guide and I believe we're making history." Bennet Sedacca, March 16, 2009
- Financial literacy is a movie, not a snap shot.
- I had a bit of a "crisis" yesterday when Phoebe thought I said "cash for cats." It took a few minutes (and some fresh turkey) to alleviate her sudden stress.
- Truth and Trust are commodities.
- Memoirs goes mainstream? I don't know about that but the NY Post picked it up and ran a short synopsis of our weekly segments. Many Minyans have asked why I decided to publish this series online when I had a book offer in hand. The answer is two-fold. First, while this is my life, it's alotta people's story (the false idolatry of money) and the timing was right to get it out there. Second, this is a first edition, an online draft if you will, and there will be a hardcover published, with a lot more details on a number of levels. So, stay tuned as I plan to shovel a lot more coal into the oven before this is all said and done!
- Do Something Joel (a random act of kindness). You never know how far a positive pebble can ripple in the proverbial pond of life.
- May peace be with you.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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