Random Thoughts: A Respite or Reality?
Will bulls turn the tide?
Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Where We Are and Where We're Going, Welcome to the Grand Illusion and The Crying Game - Financials in Drag.
It's not about a salary, it's all about reality. - 12:13 pm
- Long Huggies, Short Higgies? We continue to monitor the out-performance of the consumer non-durables versus the deterioration in the financials in drag. Along those lines, I would draw your attention to Hartford Financial Services (HIG) (-12%) as the insurers get sucked into the muck.
- We offered at the end of August that it would be a September to Remember. That, quite possibly, could have been the understatement of the year.
- What will October bring? Well, among other things, the fiscal year-end for most mutual funds (including 401(k)'s and SEP I.R.A's). I can't imagine that'll help social mood and risk appetites all that much.
- I just tossed offered my thoughts on the rescue plan into TV-land. They were drawn from the Minyanville professor discussion and included:
- Guarantee deposits and protect those who saved.
- Inject equity into banks and pass ownership to taxpayers.
- Create a regulated exchange for credit derivatives.
- Hold those who have transgressed culpable including consumers over-extended on credit, institutions that financially engineered and policy makers that were complicit (that investigation should be grandfathered (Alan Greenspan) and extend up the entire food chain, all the way to the CEO of the USA).
- Guarantee deposits and protect those who saved.
- But that won't happen.
- Meanwhile, back in the USSA, the sticky green banks are trying to lead the broader tape out of the abyss. Well, banks may not be the right description. Government Income Recipients--or GIRs--sorta sums 'em up better.
- In the interest of full disclosure, I had some SPY puts and punted 'em down twenty-something. Why? Scary as it sounds, I had a sense they would "Stop Trading--News Pending." Better lucky than smart I suppose.
- Furthermore, I've had NWA's Gangsta Gangsta in my head for the last three days straight.
A few quick Minyan Housekeeping Items
Wanna surround yourself with people you trust? The Minyanville Festivus is Thursday, December 4th and it's for the kids. Someone has to look out for them!
If you've got Mini-Minyans in your midst, please let 'em know that Minyanland will be hosting a Halloween party in their honor!
Finally, I'm slated to speak at NYU tomorrow afternoon and while I thought about postponing it due to market conditions, my grandfather taught me that all we have is our name and our word. As such, I'll be there. On my word.
Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 1:50 pm
I'm getting sick? Seriously? Now?
- Is it humanly possible to have mid-day meetings anymore?
- Mid-day? Pishaw! How bout Sunday?
- Has the short-sale ban saved me some coin by shifting my attention away from the financials?
- Isn't there a difference between survivors--JP Morgan (JPM), Bank America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and now, it seems, Citigroup (C)--and thrivers?
- Y'all see brokers raising fees to borrow stock (which is the necessary process to short)?
- Are we gonna look up from S&P 9-11 and say "We shoulda known better?"
- At the very least we'll be able to keep our gold jewelry, right?
- As I said to Pep when the S's filled the opening gap (near the flat line), "Is there any reason I shouldn't buy back those S&P puts into this lift? I mean, other than the financials? And the massive, looming unknowns?"
- If you put a gun to my head, I would point to Red Dye. But who says we need to trade with a gun to our head?
- When's the last time you smiled so hard your face hurt?
- When's the last time you smiled period?
OK, I'll break from the format of answers in an attempt to break the frown pattern.
A few years ago, I was at dinner with a group of people. My friend MJ asked me what I was getting and I told her that the restaurant was known for their penisfish. She asked me what that was and I said, "I think it's a white fish but I'm not sure. The waiter would know."
When it came time to place our orders, she looked the waiter in the eye and said "How's your penisfish?" Suffice to say we all enjoyed a hearty laugh--even the waiter.
Breathe, Minyans--no matter what happens, they can't take "us" away from us.
Warren Haze - 2:03 pm
With the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) investment of preferred stock in General Electric (GE), coupled with the dilutive $12 billion common stock offering--GE, already a proxy for structural smoke, has become a psychological tell as well.
Engine (turbine) room, more steam!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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