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Randoms: Good Bank, Bad Bank?

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Ballots are cast in the new financial order.

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Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial). It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Will Turnaround Tuesday Fail?


Gate Sniffage - 10:03 am

  • The thought that got away yesterday? That gold couldn't muster a bid as a flight to safety play given the specter of global pandemic. I meant to share it a few times but my A.D.D. got the best of me (Oh look, a penny!). Either way, please keep the right shoulder of that dandruff pattern ($855ish) on ye radar as we truck forward.

  • Good bank, bad bank? Note the disparity between Bank America (BAC) (-6%) and Citigroup (C) (-6%) vs. Goldman (GS, Morgan Stanley (MS) and JP Morgan (JPM), all of which have flipped an early upside switch. It smells like the market is starting to cast ballots which I suppose is on the margin constructive vs. systemic, monolithic movement?

  • I'm secretly excited to listen to 80's hair bands on Broadway tonight, particularly given that it's for Jacob's Cure, a cause that's near and dear to my heart.

  • You would think that given this experience, yesterday's (idiotic) downtown fly-by would have sparked flash backs and dark vibes. Interestingly enough, it didn't, which is either a strong sign my emotional resistance has built or a disturbing data point that it's buried deep within. I'm going with the former, so you know, for it's the positive path.

  • I "see" the TD-Sequential sell signals and sense further downside awaits (more on this tomorrow). Still, with half an eye on that unresolved reverse dandruff in the S&P, I've defined the risk on my S&P puts at yesterday's entry level. Trades that seem too obvious tend to be traps and I, for one, will continue to operate with discipline over conviction.

  • Hoppin', stoppin', poppin' like a rabbit. I'll be back.


More Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 10:55 am

  • Y'all see the price action in the "good banks" (JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS)) flagged earlier?

  • While action speaks louder than worried words, is it worth noting that the S&P has now filled the opening gap?

  • How bout that Dendreon (DNDN) data point by Professor "Downtown" David Miller offered on the Buzz in front of a 13% one hour move?

  • Does the S&P have to pop through 875 before fulfilling the downside path of maximum frustration?

  • Setting stops removes emotions?

  • Is it unmanly to admit that I spun this morning at 6:30 AM?

  • Does anyone else feel like they're trading in a ghost town?

  • Can I remind ye faithful that the Bennet Sedacca Memorial Drive concludes this Friday and every little bit helps as our community honors our fallen friend?


Afternoon Delight? - 1:06 pm

Pop Quiz! What's the path of maximum frustration for an A.D.D. immediate gratification marketplace?

The answer, as you might have guessed, is "marking time" as investors digest a multitude of crosscurrents. Indeed, given the confluence of uncertainties (a pandemic of unknown contagion and the financial stress test due next week) and the ever-present technical inflection point (S&P 875), the world is reactive as it awaits validation from the ultimate arbiter that is price.

To this, I would remind Minyans to respect--not defer to--the price action.

Through my lens and with my coin, my game plan is consistent with what was discussed this morning. I've set the "stop" on my S&P puts at my entry level (slightly above S&P 862) as that removes emotion from my equation. While I understand few Minyans have a similar set-up, I can and will share that fare with hopes it provides utility at some level. If the takeaway is one of discipline, so be it--that's never a bad takeaway.

My hands over eyes take is that the market "should" be lower (note: the market is never wrong) and the underlying resilience may prove telling with the benefit of hindsight. While I foresee a meaty downdraft in the months ahead, I remain unsure if we need to qualify the breakout before a potential "Pop & Drop" scenario. Hence the snare drum tight risk profile as the mechanics of the swing always trump the results of the at-bat.

I'm jammin' on my MarketWatch deadline and other various Minyan to-do's (Tuesday's are fun days in the 'Ville) so lemme jump and juggle as we edge through the struggle. I sincerely hope this finds you well and, if you're P&L isn't up to snuff, you've got the necessary perspective to understand that it could indeed be worth.

As always, I hope this finds you well.


R.P.



In memory of our fallen friend and trusted colleague, Bennet Sedacca, 100% of the donations made to the RP Foundation through April will be channeled to philanthropic endeavors consistent with the RP mission, working closely with the Sedacca clan in the distribution of those funds. We thank you kindly for your support as we strive to effect positive change in the lives of children.

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