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Random Thoughts: Staying Ahead of the Curve


There's a difference between being early and being wrong.

  • As Mr. Practical mused on Citigroup (C)-and as we've recently monitored in WaMu (WM) and Lehman (LEH)-these financial maneuvers arrive with a price.

  • John Mack, who I respect from my run at Mother Morgan (MS), is predicting that the credit crunch is in the final innings. Still, he plans to "go slow" and is "keeping powder dry" lest another run occurs and he needs liquid positions, which he's "working toward."

  • What the heck is a kit and what prey tell is kaboodle?

  • So, Bloomberg is reporting that Goldman Sachs (GS) has Level III assets greater than the entire market capitalization of the firm. Hmm, it woulda been AWESOME if someone discussed this in the fall, eh?

  • Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke on Financial Literacy in Washington this morning. We concur, sir, so for more on financial literacy, check out Minyanville Kids & Family, Minyanland, and UMV!

  • Nice RIG! Well, maybe, maybe not. We spied some (bullish) reverse dandruff but it'll only confirm with a move through $150. Until then, it's a potential double top. That, my friends, is why trading is more of an art than a science.

  • Wanna make $250,000 per year while catching a tan? Hoofy and Boo take a look at how to do just that!

  • You know what trades pretty dry and could lead the speed if Snapper emerges? The semis.

  • The next time you're in a nice restaurant, ask if they serve the cuddle fish in pairs and if you have to eat 'em with a spoon. And then stare at the waiter with the most serious look you can muster as you await the response.

  • Crude $111.75 is the intraday high in crude Yo. See it, and remember that sideways action above support ($100) is basing while the same stuff under resistance (like in, say, the S&P) is churning.

  • Why is it always the last bite of lunch that spills on your shirt?

  • This face for radio is gonna do my regular spot on FBN Happy Hour tonight (530 EST) for those who've got an interest. Be on the lookout for a lot more Minyan Media in the coming weeks as well. All good things in all good time!

  • Hey Hugo! Go ahead and nationalize your energy concerns. And take those cement companies private as you see fit. But if you start messing with animated entertainment, you've crossed the line! Seriously, Hoofy and Boo are gonna get a blow torch and a pair of pliers and get medieval on ya!

  • I like to think that we're ahead of the curve in Minyanville. That isn't always a good thing as the only difference between being wrong and being early is whether you're there to cash in your chips. Still, be it housing, the dollar, debt, derivatives or other structural influences, it's always good to hear the financial news you need to know before you know you need it.

  • We ARE early in the deflation vibe, much as we were in the stagflation vibe. And I'm unsure if inflation (things we need) will morph into disinflation and perceived Goldilocks (both bullish) before the Phantom arrives in force. Just make sure you keep an eye open and a right hand up when it does for it's gonna catch alotta folks looking the wrong way.

  • Oh yeah, the tape? Fugly is as fugly does, Forrest, with the financials, internals, beta and the trannies (back below the all-important TRAN 5K level) melting like a box of chocolates on a warm spring day.

  • I, of course, unwound a bunch of shorts yesterday (wasabi Baidu (BIDU) (-3%) and Lehman (LEH) (-4%) as a function of discipline.

  • What am I gonna do about it? Nothing! Because if I take it to small claims court, it will just drain eight hours out of my life and they probably won't show up and even if I got the judgment they'd just stiff me anyway; so what I am going to do is piss and moan like an impotent jerk, and then bend over backwards until I find another trade!

  • Smile Minyans. A little levity goes a long way!


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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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