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Random Thoughts: Big Ben Chimes


The FOMC left rates unchanged.


Editor's Note: This is a continuation of the posts on the Buzz & Banter, which can be found in Random Thoughts: Bull Costume Update.

The Tale of Twin Tapes - 12:51 pm

  • While nobody on earth is expecting a rate hike--OK, 7 people out of 100 are, according to the Fed Fund Futures--we must respect the fact that these sessions are typically tales of two tapes.

  • With a conscious and healthy nod to remaining disciplined--and given that I've pared some of my exposure added during yesterday's better lucky than smart metaphorical imagery --I'm gonna humbly remove one leg from the bull costume, leaving one leg or 25% conviction on the long side. Hit it to quit it.

  • The "sell stop" on the leaves, so you know, remains on the underbelly of S&P 1250, or the third higher low.

  • Udder levels of lore? BKX 68.60--which would be a higher high for the financials--and NDX 1850, which is near-term resistance for the four-letter freaks.

  • Once the "lower crude is equity positive" myth is debunked--something we've been saying in Minyanville forever and you can now read about in the Wall Street Journal--the "higher dollar will be equity positive" myth will be the next to fall.

  • Things that I enjoy more than going to the dentist include:

    • Sticking my arm in a blender.

    • Tailgating at Mile High Stadium surrounded by donkey fans.

    • Being told by my ex- that I'm a bad lover (how could she possibly know in thirty seconds?).

It's Always a New Paradigm--Until It's Not! - 1:51 pm

  • While there was a fair amount of pushback when Minyanville called crude a bubble a few months back, the updated comparison to technology, China and the homebuilders finds Texas Tea following the same script.

  • Absent an uptick of angst in Iran--I know, that's a pretty big if--my sense is that we'll continue to traverse that slippery slope. The trick--and the zillion dollar question--is to ascertain when the collective mindset shifts from that being equity positive to being endemic of slowing global growth.

  • Do I foresee a massive post-FOMC reversal lower? No, I don't.

  • Am I blindly betting that it won't occur? No, I'm not. I've sold enough inventory to protect myself from the dreaded corks which is why I removed one leg from the metaphorical bull costume.

  • The other side of S&P 1250 remains a critical context. Not just for me--narcissism now!--I'm talking about the entire, technical--and by extension, psychological--construct.

  • This South Beach diet--or what's left of it, anyway--is making me HANGRY!

  • Fare ye well into the Fed, Minyans and remember--discipline over conviction!

Tricks of the Trade! - 2:12 pm

A few quickies from Kenicke as we ready to rumble.

  • The first move following the FOMC is typically the false move.

  • Hold your "stops" upstairs to avoid any unpleasant fills.

  • It'll be thin and whippy on the announcment and it's a good idea to trade smaller size.

  • The big boys from Macroland prolly won't "act" until tomorrow.

  • If you don't know, don't go. Pressy, stressy and guessy is no way to go through life, son.

Parliament, Big Ben! - 2:25 pm

  • The standout line from their text? "Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measure to foster market liquidity, should help promote moderate economic growth."

  • I continue to scale out of exposure into the first higher move (uh oh) with an eye towards adding some beef back into a pullback.

  • If we don't get it? Well then, opportunities are made up easier than losses.

  • If we do? S&P 1250 (have you picked up on the importance of this level yet?).

  • I don't mind not being involved in the financials in here. Trades are made to be taken. I'll continue to watch 'em like a hawk, however, for as go the piggies, so goes the poke.

  • Keep an eye on the homies, homie. They've been laggy (so has Goldman (GS)) all session.

  • Deep breath, friends--we're almost there.


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