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Random Thoughts: Trading the Waves

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After a tough first quarter, what will the next three months bring?

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  • Surfing is a lot like trading. You're dependent on great waves to sustain the smiles and proactive paddling as you set yourself up.

  • A Shake of Salt or a Pinch of Pepper? Someone is gonna push a button and push it good. What remains to be seen is whether it'll be the PPT (on the heels of Big Brother's regulatory proposal) or sell programs into the close (as one of the tougher quarters in recent memory wraps up).

  • While the major averages have taken it on the nose these last three months (DJIA -8%, S&P 10%, NASDAQ -15%) and the intuitive move is to the downside, I'm operating with extreme care on the heels of Hank.

  • That would put me somewhere between Pavlov's dog and a trader conditioned to continually look over his shoulder.

  • He ain't heavy, he's my brother! Click here to see Minyanville President Kevin Wassong's vibes on the recession and what it means for our space.

  • Societal acrimony is manifesting in virtually every segment of society. I see this continuing through the election-and potentially much longer-so take a deep breath and focus on a solution. A little preparation goes a mighty long way.

  • Aloha Mr. Hand! Hank Paulson keeps pointing to Bear Stearns (BSC) as "the other side of moral hazard."

  • As I said last week, government intervention is like the Iraq war. You may not have agreed with the initial occupation but now that we're there, you can't pull out without profound consequences.

  • Perhaps the question shouldn't be how to limit casualties. Maybe we should be focusing on to make the capital system safe, fair and feasible for future generations. I don't have the answers but asking the right questions would sure go a long way.

  • As go the piggies, so goes the smoke. Along those lines, keep BKX 75 (closing basis) on ye radar, if and when.

  • Remember how early the 'Ville was on Stagflation (or debt or the dollar or derivatives or the financials or gold and energy?). We'll likely be similarly ahead of the curve as it relates to deflation so keep that in mind as it manifests in the Minyan mindset.

  • The financial news you need to know before you know you need it only provides utility if it's placed in the proper context.

  • Why can't I shake the feeling that there will be a major military uptick in the next few months?

  • Fannie (FNM), Freddie (FRE) and Goldman (GS) continue to be old school tea leaves as we find our way.

  • As always, I hope this finds you catching an epic swell, dude.


R.P.

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