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Best Buy a Bad Buy


Retailer off today despite positive news.


Greetings from New York, where I was wrong about Tiger, twice on the Buzz and once on CNBC. I'm not sure Mr. Woods is ever going to be the same again after what he went through this weekend and I don't think he cares. Tiger is The Best Ever. Whether it's golf, horses or competitive polka dancing, if the Greatest of All Time is doing it I want to be watching. Such opportunities just don't come around too often.

Here's what I'm watching in a market which is decidedly not the greatest:

  • Goldman Sachs (GS), up $25 in a week, is a tough trade and you can nitpick its quarter but, to paraphrase what Bobby Jones said about Jack Nicklaus, "Goldman is playing a game with which Lehman (LEH) and Bear are not familiar."

  • Speaking of tough trades, consider Best Buy (BBY), which smacked around the estimates and maintained guidance for the year. BBY's quarter was the equivalent of shooting par in conditions where companies like Circuit City (CC) are struggling to break 100. Alas, BBY is off today, not trading like anything remotely resembling a trading bottom or even a short opportunity. You can admire Best Buy's effort but I see no point in dealing with its stock.

  • Hershey (HSY) is serving up a big bar of bittersweet to shareholders as the trust controlling 78% of the voting shares announced it's carefully considered ways to enhance shareholder value (read: sell itself) but has opted to stay independent. For those keeping score regarding said trust's ability to judge ways to drive a stock higher, HSY shares are up a grand total of 4.25% over the last ten years. The company says it's adopting a new "consumer-centric approach," thus turning its back on the lucrative Industrial Hershey Kiss opportunities.

  • Crude is down all of 20 cents after the much-speculated-about Island Reversal set-up this morning. For the sake of the world as a whole, I hope crude and its ETF buddy the USO break down in a huge way. I think the USO will, someday, break lower. I know anticipating uptrend breakdowns has killed more bears than Teddy Roosevelt. If forced to play crude I'd rather trade based on what I know ("the trend remains up") than what I hope or think.

  • I don't know where one would buy tickets for the Coldplay concert but I'd send someone else to pick them up for me.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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