What's the Buzz About: Goldman Sachs, Homies and Saving...
Missed out on Toddo's thoughts on the Buzz this morning? Catch up here!
The following content appeared on this morning's Buzz & Banter and is reprinted here for the benefit of the Minyanville community at large.
Gate Sniffage - 9:47 AM
- OK, for the first time in history, and as a function of my shooting, sharp, right shoulder pain, I've switched my mouse to the other side of my keyboard. Hey, you know what? They're right--using your left hand is an entirely different experience!
- Another reason for the traction (as per my last Buzz, not the last bullet)? Performance anxiety. This is another important quarter for money managers and my contacts are telling me that the "traditional guys" have underlying futures bids. It'll work... until it doesn't.
- Looking at the VXO 18, my conviction is growing that there's gonna be (at least) one more meaty correction before baby new year puts a lamp shade on her head.
- Early eyes? Note that BAC, WFC, MER and FNM -- along with a slew of homies -- are pretty in pink. So is GE, DELL, BIDU, DNA, LOW, HD, UA and GOOG.
- Why am I looking for red? Because the tape opened gappy green. If we opened in the hole, as we did yesterday, I would be looking for dry eyes, as we did yesterday.
- What trades well? The semis and select industrials.
- What's problematic? The dollar and the fact that I have six meetings today, starting at 10:00 AM.
- What's awesome? Today's Hoofy & Boo segment. Dude looks like a lady!
Minyan Mailbag: Goldman Stops - 10:09 AM
You have mentioned your stop on Goldman Sachs (GS) many times at 214, which it hit, but you are still short. Did you mind your stop or fade it.
Thanks for the comment, appreciate your insight.
Minyan Mailbag: Goldman Stops - 10:09 AMToddo,You have mentioned your stop on (GS) many times at 214, which it hit, but you are still short. Did you mind your stop or fade it. Thanks for the comment, appreciate your insight. Minyan Mike
$214 is resistance and, as per my stylistic approach, I placed my stop on the other side of that level. Where, exactly, that stop is set is subjective for each individual trader. As GS is a $200 stock, I gave it a bit of room ($215ish), which is, on a percentage basis, a rounding error. Not rationalizing, just explaining with hopes that it sheds light. And yes, I'm still there via puts.
Pit Stop! - 10:23 AM
Alright, the first of many meetings is upon me and "Lefty" has to hop into the MVHQ War Room. Before I scoot, I wanted to share some quick eyes for the benefit of ye faithful.
While the bunk banks, heavy homies, grabby greenback and banged up beta stand out in Red Dye, NYSE internals (2:1 positive) are hanging with Hoofy. Those are the battle lines as I step off the desk and into Medialand, USA.
I'll be back.
Minyan Mailbag: Russian Roulette - 11:37 AM
I am mildly confused by your column "Russian Roulette!".
There you wrote "With deflation, everyone loses." But it seems that savers and those on fixed income would benefit. Otherwise, savers are fools, it seems...
Yes, relatively--but I was talking about "classes" as opposed to "asset classes."
To your point, savers--those with actual cash savings and no debt--will be way ahead. Ruby always told me to stay out of debt and, as usual, he was bang on.
Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 12:13 PM
- Is Newmont's continued disappointment on costs & reserves---coupled with the potential for Nationalization in mining countries---further reason to play the metal over the miners?
- Is the price action in Bear Stearns (BSC) screaming that something is afoot for the once venerable firm?
- The chatter is that a large Chinese bank is looking to take a stake?
- That would be a spark in the dark, eh?
- But consistent with the transfer of wealth theme we've so often discussed?
- Did you see that Carlyle Capital, the publicly traded credit fund backed by the Carlyle Group, fell 24% in August?
- Was yesterday's firm action in the face of overt negatives the wink of all winks?
- Seriously Fish, how many midday meetings can we have in one day?
- Are you watching NYSE internals, which have been 2:1 positive all session?
- Weren't they sorta the mirror image yesterday?
- Am I gonna be squeezed out of Goldman before my own personal redemption song?
- What's for lunch?
The Lady Bug! - 1:36 PM
Alrightee then, as we officially edge over our weekly hump, the mood on the Street has more giggles than wiggles. The financials, paced by Bear Stearns, are showing signs of life. The industrials are motoring along, powered by GM and Ford. And early supply in the heretofore buxom beta was swallowed up, a 3% decline in BIDU notwithstanding.
For my part, as I juggle the struggle of numerous mindmelds (not to mention reaching for a mouse that is trapped on the other side of my keyboard), I've been more of a bug than a windshield today. Setting stops removes emotion and, while I've yet to fall on my discipline sword as a function of price, there's no hiding in the 'Ville. I've been wrong...or early, depending on whether I'm still there when perception and reality merge. Stay tuned.
As far as they eyes, I'm watching the still strong dollar, breadth (quietly edging 9:5, off best levels), dicey homies and, of course, the all-important piggies (MER trades sloppy but, quite obviously, Bear and Goldman have its back). I'm also remaining quite conscious that two unforeseen dynamics loom on the horizon--quarter-end, which is likely spurring performance anxiety, and the closing of the redemption window, which could cause a skeleton to spit up a bone.
Each day is a journey unto itself, that's for certain. And we'll get there, through good, bad and indifferent. I hope this finds ye faithful well and I'll be back before you can say "Dude looks like a lady!"
Buzz in the Afternoon - 1:57 PM
- P&L's should never dictate moods. I fall prey to this at times, as do we all, but after a quick walk around the block (it helps to step away from the screens), I said to myself "Self--snap out of it. There's alotta good things going on and positivity begins within."So, I've got that going for me and, as I strap myself back into my turret, the price action is seemingly "coming my way." Will it stick? Well, the internals, which were the single biggest positive, have edged back to a flat posture. That, and sudden sloppiness in the homies and banks (BKX now red) remain the lens through which will answer that question.
- Blimey! Political pressure influencing central bank policy? Surely you jest!
- Note that the VXO remains 2% lower. I continue to feel that traders can use vol to their advantage through "married puts" or "stock replacements." I will offer the caveat that unless you know the nuances of derivatives, you should steer clear. There are professionals who prey on novices in option land.
- To answer the many Minyans who have inquired, we've yet to formally annouce the December 7th Festivus. I'm simply giving ye faithful the early heads up to circle the date.
- The 20th Anniversary edition of Wall Street is out and, while I have no idea if I was left on the cutting room floor, I did film an interview on the "haves vs. have not's" for the Oliver Stone documentary. If anyone happens to have the disk, lemme know!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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