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Randoms: Day Tripper

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The bovine stumble to start a big week.

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Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial). It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also As the World Turns! and And You Wanted to Be a Trader!


I hear ya boys (and yes, I now think of Bennet whenever I link a Beatles tune), today's fade has tripped its fair share of bulls.

As we fill the opening gap from last Monday (remember that?), we're about to discover whether this is a pause that refreshes or if the 20-something percent lift will pay tribute to the axiom that the sharpest rallies occur in the context of a bear market.

Some top-line vibes as we together find our way:

  • IF we close at or near S&P 768 (gap fillage), the stage could be set for a sharp and snazzy Turnaround Tuesday lift. I have grave concerns (are there any other kind?) about 1) the direction of current policy and 2) geopolitical pushback, but every journey is comprised of many little steps. See both sides please.

  • I'm gonna peel out of those Goldman (GS) puts (added with the stock down a finski) into the close and have no qualms about unwinding the other side of that trade (Amazon (AMZN), which continues to trade quite well). My risk leash is shorter than my attention span and that's saying something but...

  • Minyanville is proud to welcome Professor Jack Lavery, former Chief Economist at Merrill Lynch, to our clan. He'll be providing his excellent insights through a weekly economic newsletter and his vibes are most worthy of a read.

  • Have you taken a peak at the analog between 1029-1940 and 2007 vs. today?

  • White light to Minyan Janet. Please know you're not alone.

  • Keep an eye on Visa (V), which tossed its hat in the ring as a dry eye in widespread cry. All the more impressive given that American Express (AXP) is off another 10%.

  • S&P 768. See it please.


And finally...

While we don't "do" politics in the 'Ville, you'll recall (during the election) that I offered that the economy would be a push for either candidate (read: it's bigger and badder than any one man) and the vote came down to social issues vs. defense spending.

The reason I voted for Obama, so you know, was the specter of diplomacy, which I perceive(d) to be a very necessary skill-set in an ever-complicated and increasingly frictionous world. That will be put to the test this week and regardless of your political bent, views on the bailout or perception of his job thus far, we, the people, are all in this together.

As such, we should all sincerely hope calmer heads prevail at the G20 for the other side of that trade isn't in any of our best interests.

Fare ye well into the bell and may peace be with you.

R.P.



In memory of our fallen friend and trusted colleague, Bennet Sedacca, 100% of the donations made to the RP Foundation through April will be channeled to philanthropic endeavors consistent with the RP mission, working closely with the Sedacca clan in the distribution of those funds. We thank you kindly for your support as we strive to effect positive change in the lives of children.

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