Randoms: Of Shoes and Clues
By Todd Harrison Jul 07, 2009 11:15 am
Catalysts abound as we drift near critical support.
- "Maybe something, maybe nothing," may simply be the post-Holiday summer blahs but I can't shake the sense that states will soon drop more shoes than Imelda Marcos.
- Whether that's the reason assigned for the "back half of the "W"" rhyme remains to be seen but as discussed this morning, it's at the top of my rather small list.
- Remember how we used S&P 950 as a technical context with which to frame risk?
- The ability to hold the S&P 200-day (886) and acne support (875) will be as telling the udder way. If that double secret support doesn't hold, it'll be Sayonara Sally for the tape.
- Research in Motion (RIMM) continues to pique my interest as I eyeball the (potentially negative) dandruff sitting atop a meaningful gap. Levels of lore include $66.50 (right neckline), $58.50 (top of the gap) and $49 (bottom of the gap).
- How am I playing this pup? Gingerly, with some out-of-the-money out-month $60 line puts. While I typically prefer slightly in-the-money option bets, this is one of those movers that, if it moves, it'll really move. That's why I'm risking a buck or two at most (depending on the expiration) and plan to trade other positions around it.
- The most bullish thing on my screen? Sticky green financials, including JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), with a nod to the underlying double support (200-day, acne breakout).
- The most bearish thing on my screen? Breadth (2:1 negative), with an honorable mention to beta (Google (GOOG)) and Crude (OIL) (still).
- The thing on my screen I'm most looking forward to? Entourage, which kicks off a new season this Sunday at 10:30 EST (it's nice to see Minyan Em back in the mix)!
- Will someone please explain to me why I enjoy rebounding, setting picks and playing "D" more than I do scoring?
- One upgrade of the semis registers but two upgrades of the semis causes a nose scrunch! Looking at the SOX through a longer-term lens, Boo has the benefit of the doubt but IF (big if) they can catch a bid (through SOX 280ish?), the chip shtick could get thick.
- Who wants an orange whip? Orange whip? Orange whip? Three orange whips!
- Actual Conversation From the Weekend:
Toddo: I can't shake this state thing from my crowded keppe. Talk about looming shoes...I don't see how this doesn't erode confidence from the inside out.
Minyan Ken: Who is going to bail out the states?
Toddo: The government.
Minyan Ken: How long can they keep printing money?
Toddo: Until foreign holders of dollar-denominated assets figure out how to de-couple themselves from the greenback.
Minyan Ken: But the government will still be on the hook...who will bail the government out?
Toddo: You, me, our kids....
- The interview with Dr. David Bronner, CEO of Alabama Retirement Systems, jibes with alotta topics we've brought to the forefront of Minyan attention.
- I know, one guy's humble opinion, right? They said the same about David Walker until the market proved him right.
- Cali? Wells Fargo and Bank of America (BAC) remain decent proxies of west coast flava.
- The continued improvement in corporate credit is the ace up Hoofy's sleeve. A savvy seer in the space-a gentleman who sounded the alarm last September-completely flipped his position in recent weeks, offering there is disconnect the other way (stocks have to catch up to credit on the upside). He's allowing for a retest in equity levels (much like we saw in 2003) but is warning investors to respect the "historic" move.
- In the digital age, aren't former networks new found channels?
- Have you checked out Mr. Practical's latest words of wisdom?
- Was the front nine of this year the definition of a bipolar stroller?
- Crimson Tide or The Hunt for Red October?
- Crude is down 13% over the last week and news hits the tape today that U.S. regulators may clamp down on oil and gas price speculators. Jeez, with all the focus on regulation, perhaps the CFTC should turn that love light inward and find out who leaked that memo?
- Minyanland. Teaching earning, spending, saving and giving to almost 500,000 children. That's awesome!
- As I said in Ojai, pride has never been part of the Minyan equation. The RP Foundation, however, is a legacy I'm very proud to perpetuate. I only wish you knew the man for words will never do him justice.
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