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Random Thoughts: Near All-Time Highs and Tense


Imagine what would happen if the tape took a 25% haircut?

  • Hoover Rover?

  • We're 7% from all-time highs and tension is this high?

  • My Gawd, imagine what would happen if the tape took a 25% haircut? Something tells me that New York City won't be the place we wanna be.

  • So, where would we move MVHQ? Hmm… Oakland? La Jolla? Tampa? Denver? Nah, can't do that, too many Donkey fans.

  • World, Hold On...

  • I scribed this morning that there are signs that the monster liquidity injections are starting to work. Or, at least that's the perception. The question is whether perception is enough, at least for the day.

  • Hat in hand and Honest Abe, I would have thought the (anticipated) probe would have been absorbed by now if the Matador Crowd was gonna dance proud. It ain't over, but it better start soon, if you catch my drift.

  • Or maybe I'm over-thinking this---shocker, right? There is the mother lode of open interest at S&P 1450, which likely explains why Munson and McCracken have been bowling for that pin all day.

  • Take a peek at this Bear Stearns (BSC) chart. See how it broke down and traded sideways under support? That's called "churning" and there are a whole heckuva lot of charts that look like that.

  • Aw Jeez! Minyan "Yes I live in the Dakotas"Jeremy asks about the VXO. Yes, I think it's too low (vs. reality) and you betcha, that's a bearish sign. I also told him that, before he goes to Hardee's for johnny cakes, he should remind himself that there are no absolute tells, just relative ones. (Think William Macy here.)

  • Your sentence is….watching this tape!

  • OK Doc, thanks for the probe... but buy me a drink next time! The downside test is starting to stress with crimson sprinkles in the financials Lehman (LEH), Morgan (MS), Fannie (FNM), Freddie (FRE) gaining steam.

  • Indeed, the financials are dancing on the precipice of mas pain. Watch these, Minyans, and let's be careful out there.

  • Across town from the three-letter frown, beta is holding onto a bid. See Google (GOOG), Research in Motion (RIMM), Baidu (BIDU)... these are all the intuitive "go to mo'mo'" year-end back-for-the-buck performance anxiety plays. The action there will help shape psychology so keep 'em on ye radar even if you're not trading 'em.

  • World, hold on...

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know…

    • Have we collectively been conditioned to expect curious rallies following Presidential press conferences?

    • So, did Jose Conseco do the right thing?

    • Minyan Peter makes some strong points, eh?

    • The VXO is flat?

    • Did President Bush really say "there is still plenty of credit to go around?"

    • Waitress, can I have what he's having please?

    • Where would this market be without the coordinated liquidity injections and The Working Group?

    • How good will the Celtics be when their chemistry gels?

    • What's for lunch?


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