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Random Thoughts: Talking Turkey with the Tape


You can learn a lot just by watching.


Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Have We Turned the Corner? and Fear of Losing Becomes Fear of Missing.

Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 12:39 pm

  • Cashews or pecans?

  • Which was the "easy" trade today--the first fade (lower, following the seven hour 17% pop) or the second fade (higher, off S&P 840 support)?

  • How long before the new hedge fund model emerges?

  • You know, the one with a three year "aggregate return" structure that effectively abolishes annual high water marks?

  • For the, say, 50% (or less) funds that survive the 2008 cleansing?

  • Why can't I shake the sense that my upside energy bets (re-initiated into the morning spillage) aren't today's business?

  • And, should the dollar catch a renewed bid, won't I have to revisit that thesis?

  • Has the back door holiday migration officially began?

  • What are apple bottom jeans anyway?

  • The weekend WSJ reported that the stock market is closing at 1:00 EST tomorrow yet the NYSE website (and my own recollection) is that it's a full day. Which is it?

  • Considering that I'm on a 1:00 PM train to Baltimore, shouldn't I know the answer to that question?

  • Speaking of Baltimore, how bout that Ed Reed?

  • Who are you? Who who who who?

Giving Thanks and Thanking Gives - 2:12 pm

As I compile my annual list of things I'm thankful for--and there are many--I take a break from the shake to offer some top-line vibes on the state of affairs. In no particular order:

  • It's worth noting that on the test lower, NYSE internals maintained a fairly balanced posture. That's a notable shift from past probes.

  • The energy patch--where I added exposure this morning--continues to field supply.

  • There is a fine line between using price to your advantage and fighting the tape.

  • Those looking for risk definition may choose to set stops below previous lows.

  • While a sharp rally was a much bigger "surprise" last week, the notion continues to rattle around my admittedly crowded keppe (which is an entirely different vibe from offering that we're "out of the woods.")

  • There's nothing wrong with a little Stevie Ray on our time.

  • So... how long before we finally get some transparency in the credit derivative markets?

  • You don't have to agree that S&P 840 "matters," you simply need to understand that alotta folks believe it does. Perception is reality in the marketplace.

  • It's gonna get much thinner into and around Thanksgiving--oh, the irony!--so trading smaller (if at all) makes a ton of sense.

  • I'm jumping back on the hamster wheel, Minyans. As always, I hope this finds you well.

Ticks and Tocks - 3:20 pm

One of the slower sessions in recent memory edges towards the bell as everyone and their sister anxiously awaits their date with Tryptophan. You can count me amongst the many who are looking forward to a restful respite as I've had it up to "here" with the flickering, bickering ticks. Some vibage from the front:

  • Yes, I'll be "here" tomorrow before scooting at noon to catch a train to Baltimore. Well, physically that is--my mind is already wandering to the laughter of little kids and the stocked pantry at Chez Harrison Deux.

  • Consistent with what we've offered all session--and since last Wednesday when I was true to form early--the upside needs to be respected.

  • The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist. And then he injected multiple trillions (of your money) into the market.

  • Google (GOOG). A day late, $30 short. Stay humble or the market will do it for you.

  • Just as deflation lurked while everyone was looking for inflation, "overbought" may loom as everyone talks about how oversold the tape is.

  • I know, sounds crazy, right?

  • I'm trading smaller (albeit with an upside bias) as a function of both discipline and time constraints. In addition to Tuesday's Emmy Awards (gulp), Thursday's Festivus and general year-end navigation, we've got some meaty things in the wings as we edge into 2009.

  • I've long believed that the ability to add capacity into this downturn will define success on the other side of the ride and Minyanville is operating with that mantra in mind.

  • Again, note the breadth as internals stayed relatively flattish during the hard probe lower.

  • Deep breath, Yo, we're almost home.

What About the Restivus? - 3:49 pm

Please be advised that the 2008 Holiday Festivus to benefit the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education has officially SOLD OUT as we tagged our magical 300 Minyan mark.

We take great pride in our community and the collective effort to give back to the healers, leaders, teachers and dreamers of tomorrow. Thank you all for all you do--particularly during these trying times--as we do our part to affect positive change.

If you (or someone you know) would still like to attend, shoot us an e-mail and we'll see what we can do. We strive to take care of our own in these parts and as always, we'll do our best to circle ye faithful.

For those migrating to Manhattan for the festivities next week, be excited. Be very, very excited.

The Minyan Mojo is about to unleash on a grand scale.


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