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Random Thoughts: Google Bucking the Beta Trend


Traders are on edge as tape motors on.

  • Remember when you were in junior high and kids would get into a pushing match? "Quit it!" "No, you quit it!" "Make me!" That sorta reminds me of the market of late.

  • Yesterday's probe of S&P 1310 was, by my pen, the second test of the all-important January lows. Remember, each subsequent test of support (resistance) absorbs a layer of demand (supply).

  • Every politician alive is painting Wall Street with a blame brush. Are you really that surprised?

  • While walking to work, I started thinking about Google (GOOG). I haven't played this stock in a mighty long time but it woke up on my radar as a function of the 40% haircut from the highs.

  • Of course, in my A.D.D.-ness, I missed the opening but nibbled into the subsequent pullback a trade. $435 seems like a level to watch.

  • So you know, we talked about this in real-time on the Buzz & Banter. And if my opinion and/or position changes, it'll post there long before you see it here. Not selling, just telling.

  • As Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM) and AIG (AIG) exhibit cracks in the financial foundation, traders inch up to the edge of their seats. With big beta (ex-Google (GOOG)) under strain, the market will shoot first and ask questions later should the piggy poke turn to smoke.

  • What am I doing? Dude, I feel like a brought a scalpel to a gun fight! Slice, I'm long for a trade. Dice, I'm cutting the other way. While consistent with my stated approach, it's a departure from the style I'm used to, which was all risk, all the time. Hey, live by the sword, try by the sword!

  • If you were really bearish 24 hours ago and really bullish right now--regardless of whether it proves to be right--you should pay close attention to your trading habits. Reactive rationalization will burn more moths than Janet Jacket. Don't fall into that trap, however easy it is to do.

  • Wait--is that Janet or Michael? I always get that confused.

  • Never let an opinion get in the way of making money. That's not a directional vibe as much as a disciplined one. Both ways, all day, until it hurts baby. That's the way love goes.

  • Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) are pretty in pink. I'm not smart enough to know if investors are looking through the recent headlines---nationalization wouldn't be good for equity holders-but I'm keeping tabs on them as a sentiment read.

  • The action in energy and metals supports the counter-trend Tuesday vibe. So you know, I still think real risk remains for commodities on a trading basis.

  • Every time there's a big economic report, I can't help but think about Clarence Beeks in a tan trench coat standing in a dark garage. I mean, every single time!

  • I "think" S&P 1310 will ultimately break, I'm just not certain if there's a push higher, followed by a chanting wave of "successful retest!" first.

  • 2:1 positive breadth, thus far all day, is a positive input. If that begins to fade, beware of the dwarfs!

  • All the negative nabbies in the financials are starting to vibe my contrarian antennae. I mean, we sniffed out some proprietary problems last June while the Blackstone (BX) billions were still being minted and have been all over the slippage since.

  • Now, as everyone and their sister is waking up to the mess--and many of these stocks have been more than cut in half--I can't help but look at the other side. That's my nature. I'm difficult. Just ask my ex-girlfriends

  • Don't get me wrong, real risk remains given the derivative machination, housing invasion and credit contagion. Auction-Rate Bond failures are occurring at a 70% clip with no sign of easing. I'm simply seeing both sides.

  • The one risk-the big risk-for this market right now is if investors "sell the news" of a bond insurer bailout. I mean, what would be the upside catalyst there after?

  • Games without frontiers. War without tears.

  • So, the good news is that I dragged myself to a 6:00 am spin class today. The bad news is that I forgot the padding for the seat. Sorta feels like it did yesterday after I punted my remaining beta exposure and missed the meat of the mood!|

  • Good luck Minyans-we've officially arrived at the other side of thy hump!


Position in GOOG

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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