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Random Thoughts: Google Bucking the Beta Trend


Traders are on edge as tape motors on.

  • Remember when you were in junior high and kids would get into a pushing match? "Quit it!" "No, you quit it!" "Make me!" That sorta reminds me of the market of late.

  • Yesterday's probe of S&P 1310 was, by my pen, the second test of the all-important January lows. Remember, each subsequent test of support (resistance) absorbs a layer of demand (supply).

  • Every politician alive is painting Wall Street with a blame brush. Are you really that surprised?

  • While walking to work, I started thinking about Google (GOOG). I haven't played this stock in a mighty long time but it woke up on my radar as a function of the 40% haircut from the highs.

  • Of course, in my A.D.D.-ness, I missed the opening but nibbled into the subsequent pullback a trade. $435 seems like a level to watch.

  • So you know, we talked about this in real-time on the Buzz & Banter. And if my opinion and/or position changes, it'll post there long before you see it here. Not selling, just telling.

  • As Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM) and AIG (AIG) exhibit cracks in the financial foundation, traders inch up to the edge of their seats. With big beta (ex-Google (GOOG)) under strain, the market will shoot first and ask questions later should the piggy poke turn to smoke.

  • What am I doing? Dude, I feel like a brought a scalpel to a gun fight! Slice, I'm long for a trade. Dice, I'm cutting the other way. While consistent with my stated approach, it's a departure from the style I'm used to, which was all risk, all the time. Hey, live by the sword, try by the sword!

  • If you were really bearish 24 hours ago and really bullish right now--regardless of whether it proves to be right--you should pay close attention to your trading habits. Reactive rationalization will burn more moths than Janet Jacket. Don't fall into that trap, however easy it is to do.

  • Wait--is that Janet or Michael? I always get that confused.

  • Never let an opinion get in the way of making money. That's not a directional vibe as much as a disciplined one. Both ways, all day, until it hurts baby. That's the way love goes.

  • Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) are pretty in pink. I'm not smart enough to know if investors are looking through the recent headlines---nationalization wouldn't be good for equity holders-but I'm keeping tabs on them as a sentiment read.

  • The action in energy and metals supports the counter-trend Tuesday vibe. So you know, I still think real risk remains for commodities on a trading basis.

  • Every time there's a big economic report, I can't help but think about Clarence Beeks in a tan trench coat standing in a dark garage. I mean, every single time!

  • I "think" S&P 1310 will ultimately break, I'm just not certain if there's a push higher, followed by a chanting wave of "successful retest!" first.

  • 2:1 positive breadth, thus far all day, is a positive input. If that begins to fade, beware of the dwarfs!

  • All the negative nabbies in the financials are starting to vibe my contrarian antennae. I mean, we sniffed out some proprietary problems last June while the Blackstone (BX) billions were still being minted and have been all over the slippage since.

  • Now, as everyone and their sister is waking up to the mess--and many of these stocks have been more than cut in half--I can't help but look at the other side. That's my nature. I'm difficult. Just ask my ex-girlfriends

  • Don't get me wrong, real risk remains given the derivative machination, housing invasion and credit contagion. Auction-Rate Bond failures are occurring at a 70% clip with no sign of easing. I'm simply seeing both sides.

  • The one risk-the big risk-for this market right now is if investors "sell the news" of a bond insurer bailout. I mean, what would be the upside catalyst there after?

  • Games without frontiers. War without tears.

  • So, the good news is that I dragged myself to a 6:00 am spin class today. The bad news is that I forgot the padding for the seat. Sorta feels like it did yesterday after I punted my remaining beta exposure and missed the meat of the mood!|

  • Good luck Minyans-we've officially arrived at the other side of thy hump!


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Position in GOOG
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