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Macke's Movers: Microsoft Bids Good Riddance to Bad Ideas


No good reason to chase Yahoo.


Greetings from New York, where I'm utterly stunned that commentators are utterly stunned at the notion of Microsoft (MSFT) walking away from the Yahoo (YHOO) bid. Sure, I'm talking my book but the fact remains Yahoo had absolutely nothing to back in the negotiations behind the abstract notion that Yahoo's founders felt like the company was worth more than what MSFT was bidding. Public companies are worth what the market says. Microsoft was bidding a huge premium to that in order to close the Yahoo deal fast. When Yahoo not only actively shopped itself around, finding no one to compete with MSFT, then started actively destroying value by partnering with Google (GOOG), it seemed the logical thing for Microsoft to pull out and move on.

In other news:

  • Marvel's (MVL) Iron Man had a great opening. Hey, I didn't see it coming that a snarky superhero would sell big but it's fair to say I like the idea. Winners beyond Marvel include Hasbro (HAS), which didn't need Iron Man to be a hit in order to sell toys, but let's just say it doesn't hurt.

  • Is Yahoo a buy here? Not with my money: I'm holding onto my already grown-up MSFT position and that's about the only action that makes sense from where I'm sitting.

  • Sears (SHLD) shareholders' meeting is going to be a grumpy one today. The stores are a mess, the consumer is weak and the potential real-estate market for a bunch of big-box retail locations (the "hidden value" of SHLD) isn't what it used to be. Then again, I still wouldn't mind being in famous investor Eddie Lampert's shoes. Let's just say he's in a slightly different financial position than the folks who bought SHLD at $190.

  • The Cisco (CSCO) kid has been on a quite a roll going into earnings. With what we've learned so far about the reporting season, CSCO longs would much rather have more Google-esque (read: low) expectations going into the number.
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Position in MSFT.

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