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Random Thoughts: Watching Sloppy Action in Crude


Are you on board the "lower crude is bad for stocks" train yet?

  • A gap higher to S&P 1405-where we were before Beeks-would have been the "easy" trade.

  • Sigh... that's what you get for smiling before the market opens!

  • I offered near the opening that I was allowing some room-to our level-but sensed that we would struggle once we get there. A little patience found a stiff lift and used that energy to add some marginal short-side exposure in the financials.

  • If only I had an Instinet at home, I would have shorted Yahoo (YHOO) stock "one up" against my calls this morning (when it was $30.30 bid) and rode a synthetic put for a big credit.

  • If you have NO IDEA what I'm talking about, don't worry. One day you will.

  • I think Schering Plough (SGP) has room to $26 but I'm happy to feed some ducks along the way as a function of discipline.

  • Keep an eye on stuff like this. If municipalities start looking pa nub, it could be yet another headwind for the Merrill Lynch's (MER) of the world.

  • With the VXO back in the mid-twenties, I'm started to warm up to the long vol side of the equation today.

  • The most bullish thing on my screen? NYSE internals (2:1 positive) and the perception of increased M&A activity.

  • The most bearish thing on my screen? Google (GOOG), in a vacuum or the dollar on the macro.

  • As a follow-up on Citigroup (C), I wanted to share some quick perspective. $30 is indeed resistance which, when coupled with S&P 1405 big picture resistance, is worthy of the effort. The pitfalls in the financials are well known and that, along with the fact that the stock is still down 45% since last summer, is why I'm keeping my position size relatively small.

    Click to enlarge

    You can do anything as long as you're disciplined. Just wanted to make sure that you're seeing both sides.

  • I've gotta tell you, between Hoofy and Boo's take on the big game and the emergence of Minyanland as financial infotainment staple for children around the world, the chasm between what Minyanville is and the vision we've long discussed is getting smaller every day.

  • It's raining cats and dogs in New York City. Hey, it could be worse!

  • What to do? Why, SushiFriday of course. There's nothing wrong with some fresh fish on our time.

  • Is this 1998 or 2001? I'm gonna delve deeper into that topic next week but I'm 75-25 that it's the latter matter as a function of cumulative debt dependency.

  • What's the best thing the Giants have going for them? The fact that I'm gonna lay some wood on the Patriots to cover. Hey, I'm a Raider fan living in New York.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know…

    • While I was gonna take the Jints and the points, why am I all of a sudden feeling the Pats in a blow-out?

    • Are you on board the "lower crude is bad for stocks" train yet?

    • Did I mention that I broke the 200 libbies for the first time since high school?

    • If you're not mandated to trade every day, why would you?

    • Does the dry action by the drillers--in the face of sloppy crude--mean anything?

    • Or are rallies to be sold in this complex below OSX $270.

    • Do you think that guy from E-Harmony is married?

    • Are we there yet???



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Position in SGP, YHOO, C
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