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Random Thoughts

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The beauty of this business is that there are daily shots at redemption.

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The Following Buzzes took place between 9:00 AM and 11:00 AM ET (and we share them with hopes that they help share the fare of this morning's pare):

  • Quiz Nose!
    9:29AM

    As discussed in my morning missive, I'm not so sure that a gap opening is what Hoofy (or Bonnie) wanna see---particularly as we cast an eye towards S&P 1490.

    That's a level we've been watching in the longer-term stuff and it also jibes with the 10-day chart (breakdown and trendline).

    Keep it on your radar and good luck, Minyans!

    R.P.

  • Gate Sniffage!
    10:03 AM

    • Uber-early tea leaves are ay, poppy, with NYSE internals 4:1 positive (Nazz 2:1), frisky homies and financials, firm metal equities (please see Professor Lance's Buzz from yesterday), buggin' beta (Under Armour (UA) +15%, plus Google (GOOG), Research in Motion (RIMM) and Baidu.com (BIDU) and sluggish semis (I spy supply).

    • As discussed this morning, Boo is lookin' to lean against S&P 1490 as former support is current resistance. In a perfect technical world, the retest of a failed level is the optimal entry point.

    • What else am I hittin' this morning? My mute button. Geez Louise!

    • Fire Sale! We're seeing massive selling in puts across the board. XLF, S&P, NDX--you name it, the "reachers" for protection are punting 'em out. That's giving us this short term bid.... right into S&P 1490.

    • I'm gonna buy a few of these with tight stop (no, really) on the other side of that level. Just for schnitz and giggles.

    • Good luck Minyans--big thangs ahead.

  • Oh Brothers!
    10:35 AM


    The Minx rallied to S&P 1490---OK, 1488.30--and retreated in kind. While there's alotta trading left in the session, it's worth noting that the session top, thus far, coincided with a ton of put selling (XLF, S&P, NDX) and a bevy of bulls pounding the TV table.

    As discussed, I nibbled on that put supply (pure trade and stops on the other side of our level) in the vein of "you can do anything as long as you're discliplined." I'm conscious that, after a noice rhythm through the front of last week's freak, I dropped the ball a bit on the home stretch. Hey, the beauty of this business is that there are daily shots at redemption. So redeem me, Seymour!

    In Tellsville, as the Nazz slips into the red (watch those semis ), I'm also watching the financials with rapt attention. Lehman (LEH) was the first to flip the crimson switch but Goldman Sachs (GS), Fannie Mae (FNM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are also shouldering Boo's screw. Also note Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN), both down a deuce, as they're the front end of Beta 's alphabet city.

    A test at resistance made sense. Now it's time for Hoofy to show these bears of will what will really is. Keep your right hand up (both ways) and remove emotion from the mix. This is a great trading tape but if you're a half a step slow, it's a recipe for corks on your forks.

    As always, I hope this finds you well.

    R.P.

  • Brusha, Brusha, Brusha!
    11:04 AM

    While the tape has rolled over like Beethoven, it's worth noting that S&P internals are hanging tough at 2:1 positive.

    One tell does not a market make but I am scalping a sliver (20%) of my morning fade as I practice the lost art of discipline.


Other Random Thoughts as we truck through the muck…

  • THE tell during the downside quell? NYSE internals, which didn't edge worse than 2:1 positive (and are currently poised 3:1).

  • The flies in the try? The semis ( flagged out of the gate), select financials (Goldman, the uber-tell, continues to field supply) and, of course, and overhead resistance at S&P 1490.

  • We're seeing buyers of Wal-Mart August 47.5 calls as chatter circulates of a Sam's Club spin-off. Please also note that $47.5 is the next level of resistance for the retail giant.

  • I'm already hearing "posturing" in front of the potential that Bernanke will hint at an interest rate cut next week.

    • That's unknowable now and not, in my opinion, worth gaming.

    • As we often offer strive for in the 'Ville, I encourage Minyans to ask "why" rather than react to the "if."

  • I admittedly lost a bit of perspective--not to mention my sense of humor--late last week and into yesterday. Hey, it happens to the best of us--moods, as well as markets, are the cycle of life. There's much to be thankful for in this world and my mojo is officially back on track. Thanks to ye faithful who reminded me to breathe.

  • As always, I hope this finds you well.


R.P.

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