Random Thoughts: Maintaining A Balance
Trading is more of an art rather than a science.
Editor's Note: The following vibes were originally posted in real time on the Buzz & Banter and are being republished here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.
Gate Sniffage! - 9:57 am
- So, hows your morning going? After awaking at 4:00 AM for the fourth time this week, I schlepped to my kick-boxing trainer (first time he fought back, not so much fun) and then got caught in an hour's worth of traffic on my way to MVHQ. I'm so loving this Mercury Retrograde thing...
- In this morning's column, I asked some hard questions regarding the DNA of the latest lift. It looks, smells and feels like a bear market rally but it remains to be seen if we've got further room to run before it fails.
- I offer these thoughts through the lens of a man holding some calls in the huggies and druggies. My intention is to give them some time to climb but if we have, in fact, run into reality, it'll be an uphill battle.
- An option for moi is to hedge my risk with some paper in the financials. I haven't pulled that trigger as I've been ducking (and weaving) into and out of meetings (and jabs) all morning.
- These eyes have seen alotta love but they're never gonna see another woman like I had in you. They're also seeing 3:1 negative breadth, a higher dollar (watch this), firm retail and homies and my flight to Phoenix, which just took off without me.
- Gotta hop--I'll be ba-hack.
Price Check, Aisle Five! - 11:00 am
The flickering ticks are bickering quicker as the S&P recaptures lost ground and fills the opening gap. Some top-line vibes as the planets realign:
- There is a big difference between respecting price action and deferring to it. if you were choking on inventory this morning, use this action to your advantage such that you can view the dew through a proactive. lens.
- The most bullish thing on my screen? The homies. Not because Pulte (PHM) is up 10% (and the HGX is up 3.5%). Because as a psychological proxy, all eyez on are on 'em.
- The most bearish thing on my screen? Prolly the macro lens, with the dollar higher and crude off 3%. Asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation isn't a daily dance but it's the big picture risk.
- The swing factor? Yep, the financials. If they can lift, it'll shift the mood and craft the 'tude. If they can't hold they're gains, the tape will trade reactive and follow 'em lower.
- Note the flat bread, er, breadth.
- I bleed Silver and Black--this you know--but as a New Yorker, I've gotta root for the Jints. Either way and anyway, Plaxico shouldn't be tempting fate. He's no Broadway Joe and the last thing you wanna do is give the Patriots extra incentive.
- I've done more hand-sitting than trading today. I've got my bets on and I'm practicing proactive patience as we sort through the dew. Take care of the minutes and the hours will take care of themselves.
Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 12:31 pm
- Are the Mets gonna win next year's World Series?
- As goes the pigges, so goes the woah?
- Will Google (GOOG)--which doesn't offer guidance--escape the typical tech post-earnings poundage?
- Will the Minx have the moxie to push through this upcoming overhead resistance zone?
- At what point does Blackstone (BX) become a franchise value play?
- Aren't the homebuilders real-time examples that the news is always worst at a bottom?
- Even if it's not THE bottom?
- If this were easy, woudn't everyone do it?
Buzz in the Afternoon - 12:55 pm
- I've heard of JB in LV but JB and LP?
- If last week--wait, was that really last week--was the bungee of discord, is this the wall of worry?
- The beauty--and, at times, frustration--of putting it out there in real-time is that, well, it's out there! I offer this as I came in leaning long, the market is up smartly and my names are under-performing.
- For every Coke (KO) (+1.5%), there's a Merck (MRK)(-1.8%) and there's a delicate balance between riding your winners and cutting your sinners vs. rotating risk and using price to your advantage. It's discussions like this that cement the notion that trading is more of an art rather than a science.
- Hands over horns, Hoofy wants to see the LVLT--leadership, volume, levels, tenor--appreciate on the aggregate. As it stands, the homies and banks, while helpful, won't lift the load by themselves. He needs tech, energy, consumers and pharma to pitch in before he pitches tent.
- Important close? You betcha!
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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