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Randoms: A Housing Recovery or a House of Cards?


The Turnaround Tuesday battle continues.

  • As past resistance is future support, S&P 800 now serves as tight and defined risk for the Matador Crowd. That, along with the percolating performance anxiety, are front and center in the trading community.

  • As per Mr. Practical, is the PPIP a short-term Band-Aid on a broken bone?

  • "Toddo, 2 tidbits for ye faithful. We wrote a note today following through with our earlier statement that we would become more defensive at SPX 800 or above. In addition, George Soros wrote an article in today's WSJ highlighting and reinforcing our view of the need to eliminate CDS for this crisis to end." Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities

  • David Rosenberg and Richard Bernstein have tendered their resignation at Merr, er, Bank America (BAC). They were cream of the crop, along with Jeff Saut, the savvy soothsayer at Raymond James, with Mike O'Rourke of BTIG quickly making a name for himself on the sell side.

  • Man, can you set your watch by Turnaround Tuesday or what? Following big moves, such as the one witnessed yesterday, there is typically a test in the same direction (in this case higher).

  • In terms of stickability, watch market breadth (currently 2:1 negative), the financials and beta (stealth strength in Google (GOOG) and Baidu (BIDU), which we flagged early this morning).

  • Also vying for attention is gold (pffft! $30), the greenback (+50 bips) and select retailers (SHLD, HD, LOW), which are subtly acting dry.

  • There's anecdotal evidence that suggests we may have some unresolved upside business. While the current rally is the fifth such move of 10% or more since we peaked in 2007, recent market internals have been stronger than during any of those prior lifts.

  • Further, canvassing data since 1930, there have only been 7 other periods where net breadth over a 10-day period averaged over 35% of total issues. According to our friends at BTIG, 6 of those 7 periods found the market higher the next week, month and quarter.

  • I would counter -- shockingly enough -- that historical precedent need not apply given we've never seen this movie before. With the cumulative imbalances that steadily built since the turn of the century, we've already entered a prolonged period of socioeconomic malaise entirely more depressing than a recession.

  • What's that mean in a nutshell? mufflemufflemuffle (That was me in a nutshell).

  • No, it means that we should try to make hay while the sun shines, respect the potential for further lift but keep in mind that there is a massive difference between a cyclical bull nestled with a secular bear and a secular bull market.

  • And the former storm, as opposed to the latter matter, selling dips (to buy blips) vs. buying dips (to sell blips) is the stylistic approach that will help Minyans achieve the financial staying power necessary to find their way through this freaky fray.

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  • At least now we know Jack Bauer survives the biological battle. And yes, hints of bromance abound and I'm man enough to admit it.

  • Who's got some snaps for the petrol? O-Dog is keeping close tabs on the homies as 1) they were the first sector to fail (remember the cancer scenario?) and 2) there is a double bottom below and a trendline above. See it, even if you skip the gin and juice.

  • Things I've Learned.

  • Friday night. Friends. Orange . Beer. Perspective. Balance.

  • Remember Minyans, the greatest trick Boo ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.

  • I was pretty bulled up, what with the S&P trading with a 6-handle, but in and around here, I'm back in hit it to quit it mode. I will be trading (and sharing) more as I get my sea legs back beneath me.

  • Two important thoughts: First, I told you President Taylor's daughter was a bad egg! Second, can it be any more obvious that Larry Moss is in love with Renee (who, in turn, is smitten with Jack)?

  • Bill Cohan, the author of House of Cards, just popped into MVHQ for a hug and handshake. Never met the guy but a F.O.B is a F.O.M.

  • Please remember, 100% of any and all donations in Bennet's memory will be collected through the end of April, at which point we'll sit with Nan, Michael and Katie to determine how and where to pay tribute to our fallen friend.

  • As always, I hope this finds you well. Mindful, and well.

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