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Random Thoughts: Sticky Tape Still Possible


Will it be smooth sailing or bumps ahead?


Editor's note: The following Buzzes were posted earlier today and appear here for the benefit of ye faithful.

Morning Dew - 9:09 AM

Gate Sniffage! - 10:08 AM

  • My Gawd, the Dukes are trying to corner the orange juice market!

  • For all ye who believe that technicals don't matter, take a peek at this morning's highs--DJIA 12,021 and S&P 1303. The latter matter still has some room but the easy trade, if you can call it that, was overnight exposure.

  • What have I done this morning? Let's see. Awoke at 5:30, washed my face, fed the cats, got dressed, walked to the gym, drank some apple juice, ate a banana, got my arse kicked by Dimi, took a quick steam, showered, jumped in a cab, got a coffee from Jamal the kiosk guy, walked into MVHQ, finished up my opener, gave President Fish a hug and strapped into my turret.

  • What else? I sold half my Mother Morgan (MS) calls and half my Google (GOOG) calls (pure discipline) and bought some Schlumberger (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL) puts against the leaves. That, some untouched Schering-Plough (SGP) calls and a few "situations" is how I'm currently situated.

  • I'm gonna slap stops on my trading risk--it's the whole mechanics of the swing thing--and I expect a probe lower to test the will of the bulls. From there, if our tea leaves stay as I suspect they will, another push higher certainly wouldn't shock me.

  • Remember, an assimilation of our four primary metrics yesterday offered absolutely no reason to be long. As such, I can't imagine many people were and that, in and of itself, is perhaps a reason why the tape can stay sticky for a bit. My sense is that we need to see some more "hope" before Boo again takes the reigns but hey, I've been wrong before.

  • Eliot Spitzer doesn't have many friends on Wall Street but the fact that he's got a wife and three young daughters is reason enough to leave him alone. Anything we would say pales in comparison what he's currently doing to himself. Negative energy is wasted energy and it typically comes full circle.

Hold... Hold... Hold - 11:20 AM

  • I still haven't decided whether Gladiator or Braveheart is a better flick. Geez, the things that consume my keppe.

  • Don't look now but the weighting of the financial sector (16.55% of the S&P) is about to slip below that of the information technology Sector (15.8%).

  • Remember in 2003--for those of you who are still hanging in the hood--when I offered that energy would eventually assume the top billing in the S&P from the financials? At the time, energy was a mere 6.3% weighting. Now, it's 13.5%. Snazzy.

  • While most technicians tend to use closing prices for their work, it's worth noting that the S&P and INDU both held their intra-day January lows. Look for that fact to get loud if we continue to giggle.

  • So, for purposes of technical context, we can use S&P 1270-1310 and INDU 11640-12000 as the current range. Mr. Valentine has set the price.

  • My risk? Hair loss, weight gain, perpetual singledom. Oh, the tape. Sorry, I had a moment of self-reflection. I'm still holding half my Morgan and Google calls and I've got puts on in Schlumberger and Halliburton (note to the drillers: you see crude lower on the session, right?).

  • Trailing stops are in place, particularly given the action in Bear Stearns. Yuk.

  • Schering-Plough, come on down! You've got the dubious distinction of being one of the few stocks that's lower on the day!

  • Faux pas moi! I was offered tickets to Sampras-Federer last night at the Garden and passed because I had too much work to do. Word is that it was a tremendous event.

  • Tuesday's are always my killer day, with the trainer on one side and my syndicated column deadline on the other. I'm not complaining, mind you, as there isn't a day that passes when I don't feel blessed for doing what I love with people I respect while serving the greater good. It used to take something bad to make me realize I've got it good. No mas, Roberto, no mas.

Answers I Really Wanna Know - 11:51 PM

  • Does 400 points up and 1000 points down--in three weeks--qualify as a massive move?

  • Will somebody please explain why I can't get this song out of my mind?

  • Can you blame me for shooting first (selling some longs, including MS and GOOG) and asking questions later while watching the Bear Stearns action?

  • How is someone reasonably expected to take a bathroom break in this environment?

  • Is it time to get back to trading like Winky Wright?

  • Do ya think the Fed knew something about BSC when they made their announcement today?

  • Is this a downside shake out fake out?

  • "What's another word for balls?" - Uncle Buck

  • Can I borrow your trigger finger?



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Position in SLB, HAL, SGP, GOOG and MS.
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