Answers I Really Wanna Know: Have We Turned the Corner?
- How many fund managers spent the last three months making sales to raise capital only to see the S&P scoot 16% higher in the last eight market hours?
- Sea shift consistent with our five surprises or do the sharpest rallies occur in the context of a bear market?
- Why not both?
- Are Jim Rogers and Mr. Practical both anticipating the “other side of the wishbone world?”
- Is that the path of maximum frustration—the savers who did the right thing will soon see their measuring stick shrivel?
- Are you watching the dollar as the single most important macro guide?
- Or will we wake up one day and see an entirely more seismic shock?
- Did you see crude pop 6% off this morning’s low when the Fed announced their latest, greatest multi-hundred billion initiative and the greenback flipped the Red Dye switch?
- Who schedules a conference call for 9:00 AM before the market opens?
- Barton Biggs sees “the mother of all bear market rallies” coming but he’s not playing it as a dysfunction of credit?
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Are breadth and banks still viable intra-day trading tells despite the loss of free markets?
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Did I properly communicate that I used the two-day upside jam job to pare various vehicles including Sears (SHLD), Citigroup (C), Goldman (GS), Google, USO and my intra-day rental that was Research in Motion (RIMM)?
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And I'm naked (with regards to my metaphorical costumes) but pounding my glove like Graig Nettles as I field two-sided trading opportunities?
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If you choked on exposure during the gut-wrenching sell-off, are you using price to your advantage and getting back to a place where you can breathe?
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While understanding that “overbought” isn’t a word that’s been used very much this past year?
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As Minyanville prides itself on being part of the solution rather than part of the problem, what are YOUR THOUGHTS on the best way for the government to navigate the current market malaise?
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Who is Ruby Peck and why are Minyans gathering next Thursday at Festivus in his good name to raise money for children?
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And you thought the Trading Gods didn’t have a sense of humor?
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For wasn’t BHP a primary energy vehicle of mine over the last few months (that I’m currently not involved in)?
R.P.
Did you know the doors to Festivus 2008 are officially open? Have you yet locked your spot for the critter trot as last year's soiree sold out? (This is our annual event to commingle our professors, partners and Minyans while chowing down and listening to live music. The very best part? It's for the kids in the good name of my grandfather.)
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.
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So, both Jim Rogers and our friend Mr. P. have decamped. Shrewd traders both. My take-away from that observation would be, at the very least, any American reading this site ought to pay more attention to markets and conditions outside the US.
To Jim and Ron: the *fun* stuff here is the short-term time horizon. (bravo Toddo) But to read Mr. P, or the Jim Rogers and Barton Biggs links referenced, is to look at a considerably longer term view.
I think they have gotten their sky box seats reservations a little early. Not wrong, but possibly early.
Lets see:
Credit crisis:
Not all banks bailed out yet
Derivatives not settled
Trust not restored amongst banks
Economic Crisis:
Just unfolding
Jobs getting shed at an increasing rate
Consumers changing habits away from credit?
Consumer getting further squeezed
Eurozone hurting
Japan hurting
Not even close to 50% through this
So where is the demand for commodities or equities going to come from in the near future. What about further redemption to pay of debts?
Even if the government ties reflation now, the net could still be zero or deflation for the near term. Inflation requires growth (and I would expect quite a bit of it in the future)
Even worse would be "reciflation", where we stay in recession, and the rest of the world comes out of it, so inflation gets us with everything we need becoming more expensive, and our assets are worth a fraction of what they were beforehand.
Lets keep our fingers crossed, and hope there are real programs for growth, the only way out of this (since I don't think we can try the credit, housing, etc. bubbles again for a while).
Can you give some examples where inflation was occurring during a severe recession in any country?
I would like to read up on it.
Thanks,
Elias
