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Randoms: The Windshield and the Bug


Will late to the party players share smiles or spankings?

  • There are only 17 sessions until quarter-end. Keep that in the back of your mind with regards to the percolating performance anxiety.

  • Our super-tell used to be Citigroup (C). Then it was the "G's up, Hose down" duopoly of Goldman (GS) and Google (GOOG).

  • Now? Quite possibly the dollar although truth be told, I'm wary of using this as it's more of a 40,000 foot big picture bent. Still, when it's up or down more than a percent (it's currently 70 bips higher), it warrants some space on our radar.

  • Green beans in the Red Sea include JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Broadcom (BRCM) while some homies (Pulte Homes (PHM), Toll Brothers (TOL) and Lennar (LEN)) are trying to join the dry eyes.

  • It's not important to make every trade, it's only important to win the trades you choose to make.

  • Keep half an eye peeled to that piggie pennant formation in the BKX please.

  • If I were a Hussman...

  • On the one side, we have orderly debt destruction, globalization and an inside out recovery. On the other; isolationism, protectionism and splintered interests resulting in a fragmented global community ripe with strife.

  • Keep an eye on the financials which have put on a brave face (and as go the piggies, so goes the poke). Against that, weigh the fact that market internals (3:1 negative) aren't keeping pace with the bounce in the futures and the dollar remains better bid.

  • S&P 920-S&P 950. Mr. Valentine has set the price.

  • The "news" of the day will come out of Apple's (AAPL) Worldwide Developer Forum. Be careful of a "sell the news" reaction on this event as the stock is 70% from the March lows.

  • The quote of the weekend comes courtesy of Minyan Michael Santoli in this week's Barron's: "Weight-loss pendants like to remind us that the neural signals telling us we've had enough to eat don't arrive until about 20 minutes after we're actually full. Friday's flat market, following a far-better-than-forecast employment number, hinted that stock buyers' appetite for less bad numbers has been sated, and that the data--tentatively--have caught up with what the near-40% rally has been trying to discount. The question now is whether, in the American fashion, buyres who have felt underfed by not catching this rally will keep eating, despite being technically full."

  • I've done a bit less today as I finger the pulse of the market and get a lay of the land. There have been plenty of sessions in my career when I've pressed or guessed "just to trade" and suffered death by Shmoopie (1000 paper cuts).

  • In my old age, I've found that proactive patience is prudent and if you don't know, don't go. An advantageous risk-reward will show itself, you've just gotta let it set itself up.

  • One thing I've taken a look at is Prof. Smita Sadana's excellent historical research in her Bull Market Timer along with this week's update to see where we stand based on her work.

  • I've gotta head down to Ground Zero later today (which I haven't done since "that day") to film an intro for Memoirs, which debuts in the 'Ville on Wednesday. That'll require a departure from my turret around 2:30ish, so you know and if you care.

  • Good luck, my friends, and just remember... you're a Melon!


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