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business newsRandom Thoughts: Crude Psychology vs. Structural Reality
It's a tug-of-war out there.
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Today's fray is a snapshot of the metric tug-o-war: structural vs. psychology. Minyans know that one of my ingredients for meltage is lower—not higher—crude. The unknown in the equation is whether investors buy equities first, as they're conditioned (by the media) to believe in the inverse correlation.
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Think of the relationship between the financials and S&P as a giant wishbone. The stress is building—if they can't catch a hard Snapper, it'll be time to put the women and children to bed.
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I giggled at the Gods this morning about how Mercury Retrograde passed and sure 'nuff, the 'Ville suffered a short brown-out. I should know better.
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Yesterday we spoke about the Google (GOOG) gaps—one in the short-term and a meatier one, if and when, between $450 and Five-quarta. As of today's drop, we've filled the first vacuum and I peeled out of my puts as a function of discipline.
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Make it stop! I've had this song in my head for the last few days and I can't shake it!
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Trade to win. Never trade "not to lose."
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So Citi (C) warns that consumer credit is a challenge. Shocker, eh?
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I've been watching Pulte Homes (PHM) since if first traded dry on yesterday's opening. I'm not chasing it but, so it’s said, I like the idea of trading beaten down sectors vs. extended sectors on a pairs.
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Jeezums, just last month, JP Morgan (JPM) was testing a 52-week high. Now, the stock is approaching meaningful support at $36.
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I sure wish the camera added 100 hair follicles rather than ten pounds.
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If you're getting bullish on upticks and bearish on downticks, take a step back and a deep
breath. The ability not to trade is often as powerful as trading ability. -
First, we had the moral hazard debate. Now, we've got phase two through proposed legislation. Note to Joe Lieberman: Trying to shift the natural balance of the free markets is akin to giving a drunk another drink with hopes he doesn't sober up.
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Smile. It could be worse and for alotta folks, it is.
R.P.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.
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