Random Thoughts: Of Banks and Bears
By Todd Harrison Mar 10, 2008 1:14 pm
Possible counter-trend rally ahead.
- I picked up a few stories this morning that Professor Bennet Sedacca's morning article contributed to the weakness in the financial complex.
- Let me be very clear--this story is nothing new. In fact, we first discussed the potential balance sheet woes five months and 40% ago.
- And that's after we sniffed out issues while the banks and brokers were trading near all-time highs last summer.
- I still believe there are issues in the financial complex and it's my opinion that long-term investors can use higher prices as an opportunity to lighten up. With that said, this type of loud chatter typically precedes sharp counter-trend trading rallies.
- Can you imagine how much the oak trees must have taught him?
- While technical analysis more of a context than a catalyst, the January lows-S&P 1310, INDU 12,000 and BKX 77.80-have now morphed from support to near-term resistance.
- The ability not to trade is as important as trading ability. I'm reminded of that fact as we shake off a daylight savings edition of the Mondays.
- Does anyone else miss football already? I mean, really miss football?
- My sense is that there's a counter-trend rally in the cards. What I've yet to resolve is whether it requires a sloppy session before Turnaround Tuesday arrives.
- Standing out in the crimson tide are the consumer non-durables, which is a long time coming should one of my ten themes pan out in 2008. I've dipped my wick into some Schering Plough (SGP) out-month calls in an attempt to use prices to my advantage.
- I have, in the interest of full disclosure, dipped a pair of pinky toes in Google (GOOG) and Morgan Stanley (MS) for a trade into this latest slippage. Just trading, so you know, and doing so with discipline.
- Sell hope, buy despair.
- Lest you had any question regarding where Big Ben stands in the "hyperinflation vs. deflation" debate...
Answers I Really Wanna Know…
Have we effectively learned some valuable lessons in that?
Do you see crude approaching Professor Adam Michael's $110 level?
Y'all see Ambak (ABK) down another 20%?
Have you had a chance to vibe to David Gilmour at the Royal Albert Hall?
The VXO is flattish.
Are we having fun yet?
position in sgp, goog, ms
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