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Random Thoughts: Of Banks and Bears

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Possible counter-trend rally ahead.

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  • I picked up a few stories this morning that Professor Bennet Sedacca's morning article contributed to the weakness in the financial complex.

  • Let me be very clear--this story is nothing new. In fact, we first discussed the potential balance sheet woes five months and 40% ago.

  • And that's after we sniffed out issues while the banks and brokers were trading near all-time highs last summer.

  • I still believe there are issues in the financial complex and it's my opinion that long-term investors can use higher prices as an opportunity to lighten up. With that said, this type of loud chatter typically precedes sharp counter-trend trading rallies.

  • Can you imagine how much the oak trees must have taught him?

  • While technical analysis more of a context than a catalyst, the January lows-S&P 1310, INDU 12,000 and BKX 77.80-have now morphed from support to near-term resistance.

  • The ability not to trade is as important as trading ability. I'm reminded of that fact as we shake off a daylight savings edition of the Mondays.

  • Does anyone else miss football already? I mean, really miss football?

  • My sense is that there's a counter-trend rally in the cards. What I've yet to resolve is whether it requires a sloppy session before Turnaround Tuesday arrives.

  • Standing out in the crimson tide are the consumer non-durables, which is a long time coming should one of my ten themes pan out in 2008. I've dipped my wick into some Schering Plough (SGP) out-month calls in an attempt to use prices to my advantage.

  • I have, in the interest of full disclosure, dipped a pair of pinky toes in Google (GOOG) and Morgan Stanley (MS) for a trade into this latest slippage. Just trading, so you know, and doing so with discipline.

  • Sell hope, buy despair.

  • Lest you had any question regarding where Big Ben stands in the "hyperinflation vs. deflation" debate...

Answers I Really Wanna Know…

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position in sgp, goog, ms
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