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Random Thoughts

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...when the time and depth of pullbacks consistently decreases, the "panic" phase of "denial-migration-panic" is upon us.

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  • Turnaround Tuesday? After an opening dip and the attendant flip, the Minx has settled in and settled down. Our tea leaves have toggled most of the morning with the notable nose scrunch that are the internals, which have been 2:1 negative from the word "Ben." That, as we know, is typically a pretty decent daily tell.

  • Dry eyes? Select semis (note the technical juncture in the SOX ), beta (Apple, G-Double O-G) and the games makers (ATVI, ERTS).

  • If I catch the schnook who keeps lifting my Sunday New York Times , I'm gonna get a pair of pliers and blow torch and get medieval on their arse.

  • Boo has been keeping half an eye on the non-confirmation in the banks. Half an eye, mind you, as watching for cracks in the sidewalk has distracted him from the upside scenery of late.

  • Still, as go the piggies, so goes the poke so it behooves us, and him, to respect the action. BKX 118 has been the focus but, quietly and without fan fare, BKX 116 support is slowly coming into play. I told Boo not to anticipate the anticipator but if the banks break support, it'll be the first real flag we've seen in quite some time.

  • I remember in early 2000, when I ran trading at Cramer Berkowitz, Ralph Acampora presented to us and pounded the table on lure of the long side. Not taking shots at him for his constructive stance this morning--there's no acrimony in the 'Ville and he is, after all, a good dude-I'm just offering a little perspective. Opinions are just that and risk assumption, at the end of the day, is your responsibility.

  • I can't shake the image of Goldilocks standing in front of a fun house mirror, one where the temptress reflects a dark, ugly side. Perception is reality, particularly when the crowded bar is wearing beer goggles after years at the central bank tap.

  • Two very interesting articles in this morning's WSJ. One is the biography of Rupert Murdoch and his rise as a media baron and the other about why downside riders "don't matter." The latter matter is in stark contrast to what I've written but as we're apt to say, you always wanna see the other side of every trade.

  • Bing! S&P 1527, from where our latest, greatest breakout occurred, is right here right now. I would imagine that there are a few sell stops sitting on the other side of that ride.

  • If your Buzz blinks or blanks, hit F5 and yell "ARMAGEDDON" as loud as you can. Seriously.

  • How much of this sudden supply is Big Ben and how much is Dubya? Isolationism and protectionism is not the stuff that globalization is made of.

  • In Flow's Diner, we saw a size buyer of puts in Washington Mutual (WM) and Wachovia Bank (WB). So you know and so you see.

  • Minyan Jeff , fresh from watching his son Ryan score six goals in leading Columbine to a 6th grade state lacrosse championship, has a decent bead on the retail investor. He witnessed extreme enthusiasm in March 2000 and now? He sees...well, alotta concerns. "To a person," he says, "my retail clients are worried about China, Iraq, oil, inflation." Interesting tidbit, anecdotal as it is.

  • Is it me or does nobody wanna wait for the correction? I've found over the years that when the time and depth of pullbacks consistently decreases, the "panic" phase of "denial-migration-panic" is upon us. In other words, enjoy...but keep your risk defined and discipline tight.

  • I may just pull the trigger and buy NutriSystem. I mean, if it works for Don Shula, heck, it'll work wonders for me!


R.P.

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