Random Thoughts: Will We Hold or Will We Fold?
By Todd Harrison Jun 27, 2008 1:00 pm
The market hangs on as BKX hovers near 60.
- Man, this market sure makes it hard to justify scooting early for the weekend, eh?
- Look on the bright side, there's only 59 more handles until the BKX is at ultimate support!
- So you know and so it's said, I layered into more Wachovia Bank (WB) October calls, which is my only financial long, while holding on to my (smaller, as a function of discipline) American Express (AXP) put position.
- Full Circle! American Express went from being my hedge on Wednesday morning to my biggest bet (to the downside) Wednesday afternoon to my hedge once again. $40 remains the level to watch, past support is future resistance.
- Basing vs. Churning. Nothing like a real-time example to prove that point. Crude $140, as scary as it sounds, is newbie support for Texas Tea. (Note: I'm not long but the technical metric quelled my short aspirations despite my strong conviction that all roads will lead to deflation. Remember, I'm always early.)
- How do you reconcile "the most toxic legs of a sell-off occur during oversold conditions" with "the sharpest rallies occur in the context of a bear market?"
- My path from Wall Street to the 'Ville, for newbie Minyans in the hood.
- Dodge & Cox is out pushing Wachovia, saying "the price is awfully low right now." Hey, if I was lugging 125,000,000 shares, I would prolly say the same thing. Still, as they're the single biggest shareholder, I wanted to pass it along.
- I've nibbled on a starter position in Google (GOOG) puts with a hard stop on the other side of $530. That may be too tight but I'll risk a finski to potentially catch $75 (the size of that monster gap).
- China again tested Shanghai 3000 and promptly fell five percent. While technicals are but one of four primary metrics, this is, as it stands, a textbook example of churning.
- For the first time in years, I'll be working through the July 4th holiday. Something tells me I made the right decision.
- If your Buzz blinks, hit F5 and scream ARMAGEDDON three times, as loud as you can. Seriously, it works.
- Will we hold or will we fold? BKX 60 will tell the tale. See it, even if you're not trading the banks.
Answers I Really Wanna Know…
What's the best way to play what I perceive will be a huge secular trend: bicycles?
Y'all see the importance of JP Morgan $36?
Given 25% of the financial universe disappeared during the 1989-1991 recession--and only 8% has evaporated in the current environment---doesn't it stand to reason that the 50% retracement since last year, while potentially a level for a bounce, won't be the ultimate low?
Aw Jeez, NYSE internals are 2:1 negative again?
Will Snapper have the juice to hold S&P 1275 on a closing basis?
For those looking for a tighter risk leash on Wachovia, do recent lows below $16 fit the bill?
Is that Google gap too easy?
If the DNA of the marketplace is drastically different than previous economic cycles, why would historical precedent apply?
While guys like Television's JeffMacke and Pepe Depew are au natural on the small screen, why does the phrase "face for radio" pop into my crowded keppe every time I do a 'view?
Positions in GOOG, WB, AXP
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