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Random Thoughts: Will We Hold or Will We Fold?


The market hangs on as BKX hovers near 60.

  • Man, this market sure makes it hard to justify scooting early for the weekend, eh?

  • Look on the bright side, there's only 59 more handles until the BKX is at ultimate support!

  • So you know and so it's said, I layered into more Wachovia Bank (WB) October calls, which is my only financial long, while holding on to my (smaller, as a function of discipline) American Express (AXP) put position.

  • Full Circle! American Express went from being my hedge on Wednesday morning to my biggest bet (to the downside) Wednesday afternoon to my hedge once again. $40 remains the level to watch, past support is future resistance.

  • Basing vs. Churning. Nothing like a real-time example to prove that point. Crude $140, as scary as it sounds, is newbie support for Texas Tea. (Note: I'm not long but the technical metric quelled my short aspirations despite my strong conviction that all roads will lead to deflation. Remember, I'm always early.)

  • How do you reconcile "the most toxic legs of a sell-off occur during oversold conditions" with "the sharpest rallies occur in the context of a bear market?"

  • My path from Wall Street to the 'Ville, for newbie Minyans in the hood.

  • Dodge & Cox is out pushing Wachovia, saying "the price is awfully low right now." Hey, if I was lugging 125,000,000 shares, I would prolly say the same thing. Still, as they're the single biggest shareholder, I wanted to pass it along.

  • I've nibbled on a starter position in Google (GOOG) puts with a hard stop on the other side of $530. That may be too tight but I'll risk a finski to potentially catch $75 (the size of that monster gap).

  • China again tested Shanghai 3000 and promptly fell five percent. While technicals are but one of four primary metrics, this is, as it stands, a textbook example of churning.

  • For the first time in years, I'll be working through the July 4th holiday. Something tells me I made the right decision.

  • If your Buzz blinks, hit F5 and scream ARMAGEDDON three times, as loud as you can. Seriously, it works.

  • Will we hold or will we fold? BKX 60 will tell the tale. See it, even if you're not trading the banks.

Answers I Really Wanna Know…

  • What's the best way to play what I perceive will be a huge secular trend: bicycles?

  • Y'all see the importance of JP Morgan $36?

  • Given 25% of the financial universe disappeared during the 1989-1991 recession--and only 8% has evaporated in the current environment---doesn't it stand to reason that the 50% retracement since last year, while potentially a level for a bounce, won't be the ultimate low?

  • Aw Jeez, NYSE internals are 2:1 negative again?

  • Will Snapper have the juice to hold S&P 1275 on a closing basis?

  • For those looking for a tighter risk leash on Wachovia, do recent lows below $16 fit the bill?

  • Is that Google gap too easy?

  • If the DNA of the marketplace is drastically different than previous economic cycles, why would historical precedent apply?

  • While guys like Television's JeffMacke and Pepe Depew are au natural on the small screen, why does the phrase "face for radio" pop into my crowded keppe every time I do a 'view?


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Positions in GOOG, WB, AXP
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