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Results Roadmap: Google, Altera and More


Analyzing the tech earnings parade.

Google (GOOG) reports today into the most nervy quarter in their history. I sold GOOG last fall near $700 and have been a willing buyer and long side trader in the mid-$400's.

I'll fully admit that if it wasn't for the comScore (SCOR) paid click results being flat out scary I would be a buyer of GOOG further into this recent weakness, as the surge in market share over the last few months has been staggering.

I've written about the multiple catalysts for GOOG and especially for the future monetization of YouTube, which GOOG has not rushed into (thus taking the easy money early on). This could prove to be an exceptionally lucrative web property in the future. Moreover, its growing software business, WiMax and the fact that I think it'll dominate the mobile Internet search and add space.

However, all potentially wonderful things are in the future and right now GOOG longs are facing the painful Dune "gom jabbar" test tonight.

In other tech news:

Ultratech (UTEK): It had a solid enough quarter for a nice day today. Semi-caps (with really nice balance sheets) should continue to trade well given the INTC backdrop unless they have a blow up on the quarter.

Cavium Networks (CAVM): After reviewing the quarter and guidance further, the stock could be up a lot more today and it noted a lot of strength in its Cisco (CSCO) designs and pipeline. My fair value number on CAVM is much, much higher. This is just a thought here, but has CSCO been playing possum this quarter?

Intersil (ISIL): Another analog chip maker with an okay quarter, but after the Linear Technology (LLTC) call and post stock lift, ISIL's quarter wasn't good enough to keep the momentum going. I think $24 and lower is where ISIL starts having compelling value as my fair value is just north of $31.

Altera (ALTR): This is the second stock I wish I would have bought ahead of its call as the price had become compelling a couple days before it reported. I think the ALTR, Xilinx (XLNX) and Synopsys (SNPS) of the world are well positioned even in a lower growth environment. This is primarily due to the shrinking of chips and the explosion of new semiconductor designs for gadgets, communication, mobile computing and myriad storage applications.

InterDigital (IDCC): I haven't seen firm news here but there must be talk from Nokia (NOK) of some other source of poor news related to the NOK settlement. This stock is more than just the pending NOK settlement and could be one of the best, if not the best, tertiary plays on the coming 3G iPhone. I will add further to this position on any greater weakness and had planned on scaling further into this name on either higher or lower prices as trading gains and/or portfolio repositioning allows. So please Mr. Market, can I see the $16's?
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Position in CAVM, IDCC, GOOG and SCOR.

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